** WTPS11 NFFN 301800     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 30/2008 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [955HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6 SOUTH

165.3 EAST AT 301800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT. CYCLONE MOVING

EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST IN

THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE

ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF

CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE.


LLCC STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN

SURROUNDING WHITE SHADE. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION, UNDER A

NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW, NORTH AND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR

NORFOLK ISLAND. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANT. CIMMS INDICATES

JIM IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASING SHEARED ENVIRONMENT NEAR 25S. DVORAK

ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH A SURROUNDING W SHADE GIVING A

T5.0. PT=4.5 AND MET =


END PART 01




** WTPS11 NFFN 301800     ***

PART 02


5.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING

T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. INTERACTION WITH THE NEW CALEDONIA LANDMASS AND

COOLER SSTS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA ARE ANTICIPATED TO RESTRICT

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST

TRACK WITH GRADUALL WEAKENING.


FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.6S 168.4E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 80KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE  

24HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 22.6S 170.8E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 70KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 24.2S 172.5E MOV SE AT 12KT WITH 70KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

48HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 25.0S 173.3E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 65KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WILL

BE ISSUED AROUND 310200 UTC.


 


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTXS21 PGTW 302030 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 42.7E TO 20.0S 40.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 301730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 42.5E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 42.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTION AND AN INCREAS-
INGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 312030Z.
//