** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 301212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 42.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 17.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 18.5S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 19.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.4S/38.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.0S/36.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.5S/36.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 SEVERAL CENTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER SEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THIS CROSSING OVER LAND THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND IS VERY APPROXIMATIVELY LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT LOCALLY MODERATE. IT CONCERNS THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL EAST OF 38E BETWEEN 13S AND 23S BUT KEEPS ON OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES MAINLY NORTH OF MORONDAVA. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENC E POLARWARD HELPED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 25S. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT MEDIUM RANGE IT WOULD SHIP SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE AV AILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO BUT ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE ON AND AFTER THE 02/02. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 301212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 42.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 17.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 18.5S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 19.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.4S/38.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.0S/36.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.5S/36.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 SEVERAL CENTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER SEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THIS CROSSING OVER LAND THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND IS VERY APPROXIMATIVELY LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT LOCALLY MODERATE. IT CONCERNS THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL EAST OF 38E BETWEEN 13S AND 23S BUT KEEPS ON OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES MAINLY NORTH OF MORONDAVA. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENC E POLARWARD HELPED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 25S. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT MEDIUM RANGE IT WOULD SHIP SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE AV AILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO BUT ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE ON AND AFTER THE 02/02. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTPS31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/301352ZJAN2006// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 163.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 163.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.3S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 22.7S 169.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 24.9S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 27.0S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/301352ZJAN2006// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 163.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 163.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.3S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 22.7S 169.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 24.9S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 27.0S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH- WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/1356 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.2 South 163.6 East at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles of the centre. A persistent cold dark grey overcast has proved difficult to locate the LLCC. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest steering flow, sandwiched between the 250hPa subtropical ridge to the north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment. However, the resultant shear is negligible given the large translational speed of the system. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding CDG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Fanning of cirrus indicates outflow good in most sectors. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with little change in intensity. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 20.8S 166.7E mov SE at 20kt with 80kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.9S 168.8E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 24.6S 170.8E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 25.8S 172.5E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 302000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/1356 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.2 South 163.6 East at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles of the centre. A persistent cold dark grey overcast has proved difficult to locate the LLCC. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest steering flow, sandwiched between the 250hPa subtropical ridge to the north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment. However, the resultant shear is negligible given the large translational speed of the system. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding CDG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Fanning of cirrus indicates outflow good in most sectors. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with little change in intensity. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 20.8S 166.7E mov SE at 20kt with 80kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.9S 168.8E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 24.6S 170.8E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 25.8S 172.5E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 302000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 30/1356 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [955HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2 SOUTH 163.6 EAST AT 301200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 MILES OF THE CENTRE. A PERSISTENT COLD DARK GREY OVERCAST HAS PROVED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION, UNDER A NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW, SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ISLAND. CIMMS INDICATES JIM IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASING SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE RESULTANT SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH A SURROUNDING CDG SHADE GIVING A T5.0. PT=4.5 AND MET = END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** PART 02 5.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. FANNING OF CIRRUS INDICATES OUTFLOW GOOD IN MOST SECTORS. INTERACTION WITH THE NEW CALEDONIA LANDMASS AND COOLER SSTS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA ARE ANTICIPATED TO RESTRICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC NEAR 20.8S 166.7E MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC NEAR 22.9S 168.8E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 24.6S 170.8E MOV SE AT 12KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 25.8S 172.5E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02