** WTIN20 DEMS 300615 ***


            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

            ------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI  30-01-2006 (.) 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE 

BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 

HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)



CONNECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY

OF BENGAL, COMORIN AND MALDIVES



SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.)




** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 25/8/20052006

1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8  (EX-BOLOETSE)



2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 0600 UTC :

WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 43.4E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES

 EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1005 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 18.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

24H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 19.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

36H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 19.6S/39.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

48H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 20.2S/38.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

60H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 20.5S/36.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

72H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 21.1S/36.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.

STORM

.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=1.5

RECENT INDOEX AND MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLC

SEEMS

 TO BE OVERSEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT (OVERSEA'S OUTSIDE LIKELY NORTH

OF

MORONDAVA).

DUE TO ITS CROOSING OVER MADAGASCAR, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BAD

DEFINED

 NOW SO THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ABOUT ITS ESTIMATED AND

APPROXIMATIVE

POSITION.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED OVER MADAGASCAR AND CONCERNS ONLY

BESALAMPY-MAHAJONGA AREA BUT KEEPS ON OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL

(JUAN

DE NOVA ISLAND IS CONCERNED ABOUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY).

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND TO ORGANIZE A

LLCC.

THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW,

OVER

28/29 DEGREES SST, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT FIRSTLY, A

WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR S

HOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; FEW MODELS DEEPEN

THIS

LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT MEDIUM OR LONG RANGE.=




** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 25/8/20052006
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8  (EX-BOLOETSE)

2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 43.4E 
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 18.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 19.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 19.6S/39.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 20.2S/38.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 20.5S/36.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 21.1S/36.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
RECENT INDOEX AND MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLC SEEMS
 TO BE OVERSEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT (OVERSEA'S OUTSIDE LIKELY NORTH OF
MORONDAVA).
DUE TO ITS CROOSING OVER MADAGASCAR, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED
 NOW SO THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ABOUT ITS ESTIMATED AND APPROXIMATIVE
POSITION. 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED OVER MADAGASCAR AND CONCERNS ONLY
BESALAMPY-MAHAJONGA AREA BUT KEEPS ON OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (JUAN
DE NOVA ISLAND IS CONCERNED ABOUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY).
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND TO ORGANIZE A LLCC.
THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER
28/29 DEGREES SST, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT FIRSTLY, A
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR S
HOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; FEW MODELS DEEPEN THIS
LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT MEDIUM OR LONG RANGE.


.




** WTPS11 NFFN 300600     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0801 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 17.7 South
161.4 East at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots,
winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots
within 130 miles of the centre.

Cloud tops have warmed in the last 6 hours - warm white spot
indicating Jim's LLCC at 300000 UTC has disappeared since. Cyclone
lies under a 250 hPa northwest steering flow sandwiched between the
subtropical ridge to the north and a large midlatitude baroclinic low
near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates environmental shear of 10 knots
over Jim. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding
CMG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs.  Outflow remains good to the south and
southeast. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler
SSTs south of New Caledonia anticipated to restrict further
development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with
little change in intensity.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 301800 UTC near 19.5S 164.1E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre  
24hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 21.4S 166.4E mov SE at 15kt with 85kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.8S 167.4E mov SE at 10kt with 75kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 23.4S 167.8E mov SSE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 301400 UTC.

 




** WTPS11 NFFN 300600 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 30/0801 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 17.7 South

161.4 East at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery

with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Maximum

10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots,

winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots

within 130 miles of the centre.



Cloud tops have warmed in the last 6 hours - warm white spot

indicating Jim's LLCC at 300000 UTC has disappeared since. Cyclone

lies under a 250 hPa northwest steering flow sandwiched between the

subtropical ridge to the north and a large midlatitude baroclinic low

near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates environmental shear of 10 knots

over Jim. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding

CMG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding

T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs.  Outflow remains good to the south and

southeast. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler

SSTs south of New Caledonia anticipated to restrict further

development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with

little change in intensity.



FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 301800 UTC near 19.5S 164.1E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt

close to the centre  

24hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 21.4S 166.4E mov SE at 15kt with 85kt

close to the centre



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.8S 167.4E mov SE at 10kt with 75kt

close to the centre

48hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 23.4S 167.8E mov SSE at 10kt with 65kt

close to the centre



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will

be issued around 301400 UTC.



 




** WTPS11 NFFN 300600     ***

PART 02


5.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING

T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND

SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE NEW CALEDONIA LANDMASS AND COOLER

SSTS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA ANTICIPATED TO RESTRICT FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.


FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 164.1E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 80KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE  

24HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 21.4S 166.4E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 85KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 22.8S 167.4E MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 75KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

48HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 23.4S 167.8E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 65KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WILL

BE ISSUED AROUND 301400 UTC.


 


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS11 NFFN 300600     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 30/0801 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [955HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 SOUTH

161.4 EAST AT 300600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY

WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM

10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS,

WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS

WITHIN 130 MILES OF THE CENTRE.


CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS - WARM WHITE SPOT

INDICATING JIM'S LLCC AT 300000 UTC HAS DISAPPEARED SINCE. CYCLONE

LIES UNDER A 250 HPA NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC LOW

NEAR NORFOLK ISLAND. CIMMS INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OF 10 KNOTS

OVER JIM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH A SURROUNDING

CMG SHADE GIVING A T5.0. PT=4.5 AND MET =


END PART 01