** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTAU01 ABRF 300008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0008 UTC 30 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 300000 UTC near 16.9 south 160.4 east and moving east southeast at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 301200 UTC 18.0 south and 163.1 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 310000UTC 19.5 south and 165.5 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 300008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0008 UTC 30 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 300000 UTC near 16.9 south 160.4 east and moving east southeast at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 301200 UTC 18.0 south and 163.1 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 310000UTC 19.5 south and 165.5 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 300008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0008 UTC 30 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 300000 UTC NEAR 16.9 SOUTH 160.4 EAST AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE. CLOCKWISE WINDS 50/60 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTRE. CLOCKWISE WINDS GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WITHIN 25NM OF THE CENTRE AND WITHIN 30NM OF THE CENTRE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT 301200 UTC 18.0 SOUTH AND 163.1 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 310000UTC 19.5 SOUTH AND 165.5 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY NADI TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTIO30 FMEE 300028 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 44.5E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 20.0S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 20.0S/41.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 20.5S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 21.0S/38.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 21.0S/37.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.5S/36.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-BOLOETSE RESIDUAL VORTEX IS ENDING ITS CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR (IT COULD BE CURRENTLY OVERSEA AGAIN...), THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ABOUT THIS ESTIMATED AND APPROXIMATIVE POSITION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED OVER MADAGASCAR BUT KEEPS ON OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM TODAY AND TO ORGANIZE A LLCC. THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER 28/29 DEGREES SST, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT FIRSTLY, A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE RI SK OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; FEW MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT MEDIUM OR LONG RANGE.= ** WTPS31 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/300152ZJAN2006// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 160.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 160.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 18.4S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.0S 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.8S 168.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.1S 171.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 24.6S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 161.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH- WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 292111Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A NORTHWEST- TO SOUTHEAST- ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF TC 09C. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST SIX HOUR WARNING INTERVAL FOR TC 10P. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE TC 10P WARNINGS EVERY 12 HOURS HEREAFTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPS11 NFFN 300000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/0230 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [970hPa] centre was located near 16.9 South 160.43 East at 300000 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving east-southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots increasing steadily to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Winds over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles of the centre. CDO increased past 6 hours with warm spot visible on latest imagery. Tops steadily cooled past 6 hours. Cyclone lies in 250hpa-ridge with some divergence and minimal shear. Jim is curently steered east-southeast by a strong westerly deep layer mean flow and expected to gradually accelerate turning more southeast. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre of CMG giving a T5.0. PT=4 and MET =4.5. Thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. Outflow good to south and developing elsewhere. Cyclone is expected to intensify further in the next 24 hours. Some interaction with the New Caledonia landmass anticipated within this period that may restrict further development. Global models generally agree with further intensification on a southeast track. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 301200 UTC near 18.0S 163.1E mov ESE at 20kt with 70kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 19.5S 165.5E mov SE at 23kt with 85kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 21.5S 167.6E mov SE at 25kt with 90kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 23.6S 169.0E mov SE at 25kt with 80kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 300800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 300000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/0230 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [970hPa] centre was located near 16.9 South 160.43 East at 300000 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving east-southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots increasing steadily to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Winds over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles of the centre. CDO increased past 6 hours with warm spot visible on latest imagery. Tops steadily cooled past 6 hours. Cyclone lies in 250hpa-ridge with some divergence and minimal shear. Jim is curently steered east-southeast by a strong westerly deep layer mean flow and expected to gradually accelerate turning more southeast. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre of CMG giving a T5.0. PT=4 and MET =4.5. Thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. Outflow good to south and developing elsewhere. Cyclone is expected to intensify further in the next 24 hours. Some interaction with the New Caledonia landmass anticipated within this period that may restrict further development. Global models generally agree with further intensification on a southeast track. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 301200 UTC near 18.0S 163.1E mov ESE at 20kt with 70kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 19.5S 165.5E mov SE at 23kt with 85kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 21.5S 167.6E mov SE at 25kt with 90kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 23.6S 169.0E mov SE at 25kt with 80kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 300800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 300000 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 30/0230 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9 SOUTH 160.43 EAST AT 300000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING STEADILY TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ** WTPS11 NFFN 300000 *** PART 02 4.5. THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME INTERACTION WITH THE NEW CALEDONIA LANDMASS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS PERIOD THAT MAY RESTRICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC NEAR 18.0S 163.1E MOV ESE AT 20KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC NEAR 19.5S 165.5E MOV SE AT 23KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC NEAR 21.5S 167.6E MOV SE AT 25KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 23.6S 169.0E MOV SE AT 25KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300800 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02