** WTIO30 FMEE 291809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 45.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 21.4S/42.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 22.3S/40.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 23.7S/39.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 23.2S/38.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 22.7S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-BOLOETSE RESIDUAL VORTEX KEEPS ON TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION NOW SHOWS A STRONG BUT SCATTERED INTENSITY, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TOMORROW , THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TOMORROW EVENING. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER 28/29 DEGREES SST, BUT A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTAU01 ABRF 291812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 291800 UTC NEAR 16.4 SOUTH 158.6 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT 300600 UTC 17.4 SOUTH AND 161.2 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 301800UTC 18.8 SOUTH AND 163.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 291800 UTC NEAR 16.4 SOUTH 158.6 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT 300600 UTC 17.4 SOUTH AND 161.2 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 301800UTC 18.8 SOUTH AND 163.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291946 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 UPDATED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1946 UTC 29 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 291800 UTC NEAR 16.4 SOUTH 158.6 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE. CLOCKWISE WINDS 50/60 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTRE. CLOCKWISE WINDS GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WITHIN 25NM OF THE CENTRE AND WITHIN 30NM OF THE CENTRE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT 300600 UTC 17.4 SOUTH AND 161.2 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 301800UTC 18.8 SOUTH AND 163.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291946 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 UPDATED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1946 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291946 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 UPDATED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1946 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/292152ZJAN2006// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 158.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 158.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.9S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.9S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.7S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 21.6S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.4S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 159.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH- WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 10P WILL SLOW BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS WHILE ENTERING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT INDUCED BY THE WESTWARD RECESSION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//