** WTIO30 FMEE 291202 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 46.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 21.6S/44.9E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 22.3S/43.6E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 23.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 24.1S/41.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 24.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 23.8S/37.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED NEAR THE RESIDUAL LOW, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS IMPORTANT OVER THE MOST PART OF THE ISLAND NORTH TO 23S, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 291202 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 46.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 21.6S/44.9E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 22.3S/43.6E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 23.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 24.1S/41.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 24.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 23.8S/37.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED NEAR THE RESIDUAL LOW, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS IMPORTANT OVER THE MOST PART OF THE ISLAND NORTH TO 23S, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL. ** WTAU01 ABRF 291218 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1217 UTC 29 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 291200 UTC NEAR 16.2 SOUTH 156.6 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 9 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITION AT 300000 UTC 16.7 SOUTH AND 159.1 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 301200UTC 17.7 SOUTH AND 161.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291218 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1217 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at 291200 UTC near 16.2 south 156.6 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300000 UTC 16.7 south and 159.1 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301200UTC 17.7 south and 161.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 291218 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1217 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at 291200 UTC near 16.2 south 156.6 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast position at 300000 UTC 16.7 south and 159.1 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 301200UTC 17.7 south and 161.8 east with central pressure 945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/291352ZJAN2006// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 156.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 156.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.8S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.9S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.4S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.9S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 24.2S 169.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 157.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RE- VEALS A REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10P WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//