** WTIO30 FMEE 290618 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 46.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 21.3S/45.6E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.9S/44.5E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 22.5S/43.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 23.8S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 24.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL LIGHLY NORTH OF MANANJARY LAST NIGTH, AND IS NOW LOCATED FAR INTO LANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED AT THE END OF NIGTH, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 290618 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 46.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 21.3S/45.6E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.9S/44.5E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 22.5S/43.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 23.8S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 24.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL LIGHLY NORTH OF MANANJARY LAST NIGTH, AND IS NOW LOCATED FAR INTO LANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED AT THE END OF NIGTH, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 290651 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 46.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 21.3S/45.6E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.9S/44.5E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 22.5S/43.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 23.8S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 24.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL LIGHLY NORTH OF MANANJARY LAST NIGTH, AND IS NOW LOCATED FAR INTO LANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED AT THE END OF NIGTH, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL.= ** WTAU01 ABRF 290702 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0702 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at 290600 UTC near 16.7 south 155.5 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 180 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the northwest quadrant, within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre, extending out to 180 nm in the northwest quadrant. Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 80 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.9 south and 157.7 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 300600UTC 17.7 south and 160.2 east with central pressure 950 hPa and maximum winds to 80 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 290702 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0702 UTC 29 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at 290600 UTC near 16.7 south 155.5 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 180 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the northwest quadrant, within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre, extending out to 180 nm in the northwest quadrant. Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 80 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.9 south and 157.7 east with central pressure 960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots. Forecast position at 300600UTC 17.7 south and 160.2 east with central pressure 950 hPa and maximum winds to 80 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 290702 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0702 UTC 29 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 290600 UTC NEAR 16.7 SOUTH 155.5 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 9 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTRE, EXTENDING OUT TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 60 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE STEADILY INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITION AT 291800UTC 16.9 SOUTH AND 157.7 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 300600UTC 17.7 SOUTH AND 160.2 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 80 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/290752ZJAN2006// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 155.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 155.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.6S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.6S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.9S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 20.5S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.5S 168.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 156.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SLIGHT DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS WEAKENED. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED POLEWARD OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 10P WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE LATER TAUS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//