** WTIO30 FMEE 281836 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 48.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 20.6S/48.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 20.7S/46.8E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING NORTHWESTARDS TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS. THE CENTRE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MANANJARY DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE CENTER DURING LAST HOURS DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE (AND ALSO DUE TO A LIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). LES PLUIES DEVRAIENT TOUCHER UNE LARGE PARTIE CENTRALE DE MADAGASCAR. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS MAY BE OBSERVED OVER SEAS AND DURING THE LANDSCAPE. THIS WEAK CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48H OVER LAND.= ** WTAU01 ABRF 281842 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1842 UTC 28 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 984 hectopascals located at 281800 UTC near 17.0 south 153.3 east and moving east northeast at 8 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 100 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 50knots near the centre gradually increasing to 65 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.6 south and 154.9 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.8 south and 157.0 east with central pressure 970 hPa and maximum winds to 65 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 281842 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1842 UTC 28 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 984 hectopascals located at 281800 UTC near 17.0 south 153.3 east and moving east northeast at 8 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 100 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 50knots near the centre gradually increasing to 65 knots over the next 24 hours. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.6 south and 154.9 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. Forecast position at 291800UTC 16.8 south and 157.0 east with central pressure 970 hPa and maximum winds to 65 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 281842 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1842 UTC 28 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 281800 UTC NEAR 17.0 SOUTH 153.3 EAST AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITION AT 290600UTC 16.6 SOUTH AND 154.9 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 291800UTC 16.8 SOUTH AND 157.0 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 153.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 153.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.4S 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.4S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.7S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.7S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.0S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 153.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTIPLE SATELLITE PLATFORMS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITIES FROM OTHER REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST AND REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//