** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281209 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 49.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 21.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 22.2S/47.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 23.7S/45.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ; CI=2.0 THE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISORGANIZED THE SYSTEM EX-BOLOETSE : THE LLCC IS NOW LARGELY EXPOSED AND IS NO MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ; FEW CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ARE DETECTED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WEAK AND SCATTERED. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MALGASY COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IN THE VICINITY OF MANANJARY, BEFORE CROSSING MADAGASCAR TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DISSIPATING GRADUALLY.= ** WTAU01 ABRF 281315 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1315 UTC 28 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 281200 UTC NEAR 17.3 SOUTH 152.8 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/45 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTRE EXTENDING TO 100 NM BY 291200UTC. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITION AT 290000UTC 17.1 SOUTH AND 154.5 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 291200UTC 16.9 SOUTH AND 156.5 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 65 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 281315 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1315 UTC 28 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 987 hectopascals located at 281200 UTC near 17.3 south 152.8 east and moving east at 15 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 50 nm of centre extending to 100 nm by 291200UTC. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 290000UTC 17.1 south and 154.5 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. Forecast position at 291200UTC 16.9 south and 156.5 east with central pressure 970 hPa and maximum winds to 65 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 281315 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1315 UTC 28 January 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 987 hectopascals located at 281200 UTC near 17.3 south 152.8 east and moving east at 15 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the cyclone centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 50 nm of centre extending to 100 nm by 291200UTC. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy swells. Forecast position at 290000UTC 17.1 south and 154.5 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. Forecast position at 291200UTC 16.9 south and 156.5 east with central pressure 970 hPa and maximum winds to 65 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTXS31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 49.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 49.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.9S 48.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.6S 48.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.5S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.5S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 49.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/281352ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 151.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 151.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.6S 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.4S 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.6S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.7S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.2S 167.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 151.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 280749Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELITTE INDICATES AN INCREASING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//