** WTIO30 FMEE 280615 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 49.6E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 21.4S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 22.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 23.4S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 24.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 26.2S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 27.6S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- ; CI=2.5- UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LLCC IS CURRENTLY PARTLY EXPOSED, DAYTIME METEOSAT IMAGERY CONFIRM LAST NIGHT MICRO-WAVE DATA (TRMM0141Z, AMSU 0158Z AND SSMIS 0426Z). THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW FLUCTUATING AND RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MALGASY COASTLINE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, IN THE VICINITY OF MANANJARY, BEFORE CROSSING MADAGASCAR, TRACKING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.= ** WTAU01 ABRF 280709 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0709 UTC 28 January 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at 280600 UTC near 17.3 south 151.1 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 80 nautical miles in other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds to 35/45 knots. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells. Winds increasing further to 55/60 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of centre. Seas very high and heavy swells. Forecast position at 281800UTC 17.1 degrees south and 152.6 degrees east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots. Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.7 degrees south and 154.5 degrees east with central pressure 965 hPa and maximum winds to 70 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 280709 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0709 UTC 28 January 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at 280600 UTC near 17.3 south 151.1 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 80 nautical miles in other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds to 35/45 knots. Very rough seas rising high to very high during the next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells. Winds increasing further to 55/60 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of centre. Seas very high and heavy swells. Forecast position at 281800UTC 17.1 degrees south and 152.6 degrees east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots. Forecast position at 290600UTC 16.7 degrees south and 154.5 degrees east with central pressure 965 hPa and maximum winds to 70 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 280709 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0709 UTC 28 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 280600 UTC NEAR 17.3 SOUTH 151.1 EAST AND MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN OTHER QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS TO 35/45 KNOTS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING HIGH TO VERY HIGH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. WINDS INCREASING FURTHER TO 55/60 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. SEAS VERY HIGH AND HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITION AT 281800UTC 17.1 DEGREES SOUTH AND 152.6 DEGREES EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 290600UTC 16.7 DEGREES SOUTH AND 154.5 DEGREES EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 70 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTIN20 DEMS 280715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONNECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER S OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTPS31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/280752ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 150.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 150.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.0S 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.8S 154.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.6S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.0S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.0S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 151.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//