** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 280012 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 35 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 12 UTC: 21.0S / 49.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/29 AT 00 UTC: 22.0S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LASTHOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE HIGH PRESSURES, THE SYSTEM ONLY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 280012 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 28/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 35 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 12 UTC: 21.0S / 49.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/29 AT 00 UTC: 22.0S / 48.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LASTHOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE HIGH PRESSURES, THE SYSTEM ONLY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280027 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 23.5S/46.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 25.2S/45.7E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 27.0S/44.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 28.5S/42.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND HAS BECOME MODERATE OVER THE LAST HOURS. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WHICH ARE QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARDS, THE LOW ONLY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, CROSSING MADAGASCAR TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280027 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 23.5S/46.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 25.2S/45.7E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 27.0S/44.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 28.5S/42.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND HAS BECOME MODERATE OVER THE LAST HOURS. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WHICH ARE QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARDS, THE LOW ONLY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, CROSSING MADAGASCAR TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH. . ** WTAU01 ABRF 280032 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0032 UTC 28 January 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals located at 280000 UTC near 17.3 south 149.5 east and moving north-northeast at 5 knots. Position Good. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 110 nautical miles in other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds to 35/40 knots. Rough seas rising very rough to high during the next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells. Winds increasing further to 45/50 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of centre. Seas becoming high to very high. Forecast position at 281200UTC 17.3 degrees south and 150.7 degrees east with central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots. Forecast position at 290000UTC 17.0 degrees south and 152.5 degrees east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 280032 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0032 UTC 28 January 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals located at 280000 UTC near 17.3 south 149.5 east and moving north-northeast at 5 knots. Position Good. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 110 nautical miles in other quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds to 35/40 knots. Rough seas rising very rough to high during the next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells. Winds increasing further to 45/50 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of centre. Seas becoming high to very high. Forecast position at 281200UTC 17.3 degrees south and 150.7 degrees east with central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots. Forecast position at 290000UTC 17.0 degrees south and 152.5 degrees east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 280032 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0032 UTC 28 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 280000 UTC NEAR 17.3 SOUTH 149.5 EAST AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN OTHER QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS TO 35/40 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS RISING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. WINDS INCREASING FURTHER TO 45/50 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. SEAS BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH. FORECAST POSITION AT 281200UTC 17.3 DEGREES SOUTH AND 150.7 DEGREES EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 290000UTC 17.0 DEGREES SOUTH AND 152.5 DEGREES EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 55 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJAN06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 149.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 149.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.1S 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.8S 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 16.6S 154.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.1S 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 18.8S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 149.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER. TC 10P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTH. THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POINT. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 272051Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 272100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//