** WTIO22 FMEE 271815 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 50.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 35 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTSEM. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 06 UTC: 22.2S / 49.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 18 UTC: 22.6S / 48.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. IT IS STRONGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED AND THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS HOWEVER WELL DEFINED AND STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT W ITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE HIGH PRESSURES, THE WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271829 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 50.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 22.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 22.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 23.8S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 25.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 29.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE, DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS HOWEVER WELL DEFINED. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WHICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW ONLY SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND KEEP ON WEAKENING, DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERL Y VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTPS21 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/272051ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 148.8E TO 18.5S 153.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY 850 MB VORTICITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUR- THER INTENSIFICATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 282100Z.//