** WTIO22 FMEE 271220 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 00 UTC: 22.8S / 50.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 12 UTC: 23.2S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER HAVING SLIGHTLY TRACKED NORTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. THHE LLCC STARTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WICH UNDERGOES AN ENHANCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE LAST NIGHT . AFTER THIS TRANSIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH THE SYSTEM AND WICH SOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW SOULD WEAKEN AND EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271236 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 22.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.2S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 24.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 25.4S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 27.0S/46.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 72H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 28.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ AFTER HAVING SLIGHTLY TRACKED NORTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. THE LLCC STARTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WICH UNDERGOES AN ENHANCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE LAST NIGHT . AFTER THIS TRANSIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH THE SYSTEM AND WICH SOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW SOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH , AND WEAKEN DUE TO AN ENHANCING SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.2S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.1S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.2S 48.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 50.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTIO21 FMEE 271220 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/01/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 014/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 27/01/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (VINGT-DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/01/2006 A 00 UTC: 22.8S / 50.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 28/01/2006 A 12 UTC: 23.2S / 49.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: APRES UNE LENTE REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-EST, LE CENTRE DE BASSES-COUCHES A BIFURQUE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. IL COMMENCE A APPARAITRE EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION QUI SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE DE SUD-OUEST QUI SE RENFORCE DEPUIS LA NUIT DERNIERE. APRES CE TRANSIT SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD EN SE DECALANT VERS L'EST, LE MINIMUM DEVRAIR S'EVACUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN S'AFAIBLISSANT AU DELA DES PROCHAINES 24H A LA SUITE DU THALWEG SUIVANT. ** WTIO22 FMEE 271220 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 00 UTC: 22.8S / 50.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 12 UTC: 23.2S / 49.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER HAVING SLIGHTLY TRACKED NORTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. THHE LLCC STARTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WICH UNDERGOES AN ENHANCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE LAST NIGHT .. AFTER THIS TRANSIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH THE SYSTEM AND WICH SOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW SOULD WEAKEN AND EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH. ** WTIO30 FMEE 271236 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 22.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.2S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 24.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 25.4S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 27.0S/46.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 72H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 28.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ AFTER HAVING SLIGHTLY TRACKED NORTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. THE LLCC STARTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WICH UNDERGOES AN ENHANCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE LAST NIGHT .. AFTER THIS TRANSIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH THE SYSTEM AND WICH SOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW SOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH , AND WEAKEN DUE TO AN ENHANCING SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.