** WTIO22 FMEE 270608 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 51.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 18 UTC: 22.4S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 06 UTC: 22.4S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE STOPPED SINCE YESTERDAY 1800UTC DUE TO THE CONSTRAINT OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO WEAK SLOWLY, MAINLY DUE TO A MODERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE MINIMAL SEAL LEVEL PRESSURE OF THE CENTRE IS RATHER HIGH FOR A SYSTEM IOF SUCH INTENSITY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270623 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 51.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 MOINS /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 22.4S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 22.4S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 22.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 24.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 25.3S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 26.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED, BUT CONVECTION BEGINS TO UNDERGOES MODERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE IT TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TEMPORARILY REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH IN LOW AND MEDIUM LEVEL. IT COULD THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 270635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONNECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER S OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL(.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.)