** WTIO22 FMEE 270016 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 27/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 12 UTC: 22.6S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/28 AT 00 UTC: 23.4S / 50.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE STOPPED SINCE YESTERDAY 1800UTC DUE TO THE CONSTRAINT OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO WEAK SLOWLY AND THEN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND TO SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 24.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 25.4S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 27.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 28.3S/47.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED (CF TRMM 37GHZ AT 1826UTC) BUT INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A FLUCTUATING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONSTRAINT NOW BY A MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. IT COULD THEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND TO SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270039 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 24.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 25.4S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 27.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 28.3S/47.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED (CF TRMM 37GHZ AT 1826UTC) BUT INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A FLUCTUATING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONSTRAINT NOW BY A MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. IT COULD THEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND TO SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 270300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 50.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 50.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 22.4S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.3S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.4S 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 50.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 262158Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE CENTER. TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TOWARD THE WEST AS EASTERN STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TC 09S BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF UNFAVORBALE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//