** WTIO22 FMEE 261823 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 50.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 06 UTC: 23.8S / 50.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 18 UTC: 23.8S / 51.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH AND THEN TO STAY QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING 24 TO 36 HOURS. AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND TO SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 50.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8S/50.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 23.8S/51.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.9S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 24.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 26.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 27.7S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED (CF MIWROWAVE IMAGERY OF SSMI AT 1502UTC AND OF WINDSAT AT 1433UTC). SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEX T TROUGH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261832 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 50.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8S/50.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 23.8S/51.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.9S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 24.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 26.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 27.7S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED (CF MIWROWAVE IMAGERY OF SSMI AT 1502UTC AND OF WINDSAT AT 1433UTC). SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEX T TROUGH.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 11.0N 112.4E 1005HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 7.9N 110.5E 1005HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 11.0N 112.4E 1005HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 7.9N 110.5E 1005HPA 16M/S=