** WTIO22 FMEE 261211 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA POSITION: 22.9S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 00 UTC: 23.9S / 50.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 12 UTC: 24.2S / 50.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED AND BOLOETSE STARTS TO WEAKEN. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARLY SOUTHWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS . STRONGER WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261211 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1200 UTC : 22.9S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 24.2S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 24.2S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 23.7S/46.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 24.0S/45.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0, CI=3.5 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED AND ERODED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEX T TROUGH.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 261211 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA POSITION: 22.9S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 00 UTC: 23.9S / 50.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 12 UTC: 24.2S / 50.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED AND BOLOETSE STARTS TO WEAKEN. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARLY SOUTHWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS .. STRONGER WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ** WTIO21 FMEE 261211 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/01/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 010/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 26/01/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA POSITION: 22.9S / 50.7E (VINGT-DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 110 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST. TEMPETE 50 KT ET MER GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/01/2006 A 00 UTC: 23.9S / 50.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT. A 24H POUR LE 27/01/2006 A 12 UTC: 24.2S / 50.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES MASSES NUAGEUSES ASSOCIEES AU SYSTEME PERDENT EN ORGANISATION ET BOLOETSE S'AFFAIBLIT. IL POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE REGULIERE VERS LE SUD. IL EST PREVU RALENTIR ET VIRER VERS L'OUEST EN DIRECTION DES COTES MALGACHES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SE SITUENT DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME. ** WTIO30 FMEE 261211 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1200 UTC : 22.9S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 24.2S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 24.2S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 23.7S/46.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 24.0S/45.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0, CI=3.5 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED AND ERODED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE) , MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEX T TROUGH. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 11.3N 113.0E 1005HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 7.7N 111.4E 1005HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 11.3N 113.0E 1005HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 7.7N 111.4E 1005HPA 16M/S= ** WTMG20 FMMD 261300 *** BULLETIN MARINE SPECIAL B.M.S. N 006/ 08 DE FMMDYMYP H 12TU LE 26/01/06 H 12 TU AVIS DE TEMPETE : EN COURS FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION : 986 HPA CENTREE A : 12TU D'APRRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU POINT : VINGT DEUX DEGRES DECIMAL NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DECIMAL SIX EST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E DEPLACEMENT : SUD VITESSE : 07 KT Z O N E I N T E R E S S E E : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT PRES DU CENTRE ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRANDS FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE STORM WARNING : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 986 HPA CENTREAD AT 12T ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 20 NM AROUND : TWENTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL NINE SOUTH AND FIFTY DEGREES DECIMAL SIX EAST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E MOVEMENT : SOUTHWARD SPEED : 07K T I N T E R E S T E D A R E A : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT NEAR THE CENTER AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED ** WTMG20 FMMD 261300 *** BULLETIN MARINE SPECIAL B.M.S. N 006/ 08 DE FMMDYMYP H 12TU LE 26/01/06 H 12 TU AVIS DE TEMPETE : EN COURS FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION : 986 HPA CENTREE A : 12TU D'APRRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU POINT : VINGT DEUX DEGRES DECIMAL NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DECIMAL SIX EST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E DEPLACEMENT : SUD VITESSE : 07 KT Z O N E I N T E R E S S E E : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT PRES DU CENTRE ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRANDS FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE STORM WARNING : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 986 HPA CENTREAD AT 12T ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 20 NM AROUND : TWENTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL NINE SOUTH AND FIFTY DEGREES DECIMAL SIX EAST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E MOVEMENT : SOUTHWARD SPEED : 07K T I N T E R E S T E D A R E A : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT NEAR THE CENTER AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED= ** WTMG20 FMMD 261300 *** BULLETIN MARINE SPECIAL B.M.S. N 006/ 08 DE FMMDYMYP H 12TU LE 26/01/06 H 12 TU AVIS DE TEMPETE : EN COURS FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION : 986 HPA CENTREE A : 12TU D'APRRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU POINT : VINGT DEUX DEGRES DECIMAL NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DECIMAL SIX EST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E DEPLACEMENT : SUD VITESSE : 07 KT Z O N E I N T E R E S S E E : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT PRES DU CENTRE ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRANDS FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE STORM WARNING : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 986 HPA CENTREAD AT 12T ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 20 NM AROUND : TWENTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL NINE SOUTH AND FIFTY DEGREES DECIMAL SIX EAST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E MOVEMENT : SOUTHWARD SPEED : 07K T I N T E R E S T E D A R E A : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT NEAR THE CENTER AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED ** WTMG20 FMMD 261300 *** BULLETIN MARINE SPECIAL B.M.S. N 006/ 08 DE FMMDYMYP H 12TU LE 26/01/06 H 12 TU AVIS DE TEMPETE : EN COURS FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION : 986 HPA CENTREE A : 12TU D'APRRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU POINT : VINGT DEUX DEGRES DECIMAL NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES DECIMAL SIX EST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E DEPLACEMENT : SUD VITESSE : 07 KT Z O N E I N T E R E S S E E : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT PRES DU CENTRE ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRANDS FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 240MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE STORM WARNING : SEVERE TROPICAL STORM : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 986 HPA CENTREAD AT 12T ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 20 NM AROUND : TWENTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL NINE SOUTH AND FIFTY DEGREES DECIMAL SIX EAST. RPT : 22.9 S/ 50.6 E MOVEMENT : SOUTHWARD SPEED : 07K T I N T E R E S T E D A R E A : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT NEAR THE CENTER AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED= ** WTXS31 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.6S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.2S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.9S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.6S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 50.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIMINISHING CONVECT- ION. TC 09S IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF AMBIGUOUS STEERING BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST. A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND RESULT IN A WEST- WARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE STORM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WARNING STATUS FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//