** WTPN21 PGTW 260330 ***
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 260321ZJAN2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250521ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
    1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 250530). THE AREA
OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF NHA
TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
AREA IS UNDER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED AT 1005 MB. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EN-
VIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO
POOR.//




** WTIO22 FMEE 260611 ***
SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 009/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY  26/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON:        SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA

POSITION:           22.6S / 50.7E

(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES

EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT:          SOUTH 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING

LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.



STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND  VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF

THE

 CENTRE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND  ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30

NM

RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 18 UTC:

24.0S / 50.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT.

24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 06 UTC:

24.2S / 50.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT.



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER LAST NIGHT AND HAS LIKELY

REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY.

IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARLY SOUTHWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW

DOWN

AND  THEN TRACK WESTWARDS  TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS

.

STRONGER WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.=




** WTIN20 DEMS 260610 ***


            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

            ------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI  26-01-2006 (.) 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE 

BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 

HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)



CONNECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL(.)



RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 200 HPA LEVEL AT 05 DEG NORTH(.)






** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TD01 INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC

00HR 11.5N 113.7E 1002HPA 16M/S

P12HR WSW 10KM/H

P+24HR 7.8N 110.6E 1002HPA 16M/S=




** WTIO30 FMEE 260623 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/8/20052006

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (BOLOETSE)



2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0600 UTC :

22.6S / 50.7E

(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES

EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

30 KT       NE: 080   SE: 110   SO: 110   NO: 060



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 24.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=045KT.

24H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 24.2S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.

36H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.

48H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.

60H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 23.5S/46.5E OVERLAND.

72H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 23.4S/45.0E OVERLAND.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=3.5-, CI=3.5

BOLOETSE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY DURING LAST

NIGHT

(MICROWAVE IMAGERY AMSRE 2158Z AND TRMM 0154Z), AS THE UPPER LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARDS

OUTFLOW CHANNEL).

SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN

AVERAGE)

, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS.

NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE

TROUGH. BOLOETSE SHOULD TRACK TOAWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT

24

HOURS.=




** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TD01   INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC

00HR 11.5N 113.7E 1002HPA 16M/S

P12HR WSW 10KM/H

P+24HR 7.8N 110.6E 1002HPA 16M/S=






** WTIO21 FMEE 260611 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 26/01/2006 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 009/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE TEMPETE
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 26/01/2006 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA 
POSITION:           22.6S / 50.7E 
(VINGT-DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD 7 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST.

TEMPETE 50 KT ET MER GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU
CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR
DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.. 
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 26/01/2006 A 18 UTC: 
24.0S / 50.9E, VENT MAX = 45 KT.
A 24H POUR LE 27/01/2006 A 06 UTC: 
24.2S / 50.5E, VENT MAX = 40 KT.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME S'EST LEGEREMENT INTENSIFIE AU COURS DE LA NUIT DERNIERE, ET A
 VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE.
IL POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE REGULIERE VERS LE SUD. IL EST PREVU RALENTIR
ET VIRER VERS L'OUEST EN DIRECTION DES COTES MALGACHES DANS LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.
LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SE SITUENT DANS LE SUD DU SYSTEME.




** WTIO22 FMEE 260611 ***
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY  26/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 990 HPA 
POSITION:           22.6S / 50.7E 
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND  VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE
 CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND  ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 18 UTC: 
24.0S / 50.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT.
24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 06 UTC: 
24.2S / 50.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER LAST NIGHT AND HAS LIKELY
REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY.
IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARLY SOUTHWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN 
AND  THEN TRACK WESTWARDS  TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
..
STRONGER WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.




** WTIO30 FMEE 260623 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/8/20052006
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (BOLOETSE)

2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0600 UTC :
22.6S / 50.7E 
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 080   SE: 110   SO: 110   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 24.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=045KT.
24H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 24.2S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 23.5S/46.5E OVERLAND.
72H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 23.4S/45.0E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5-, CI=3.5
BOLOETSE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY DURING LAST NIGHT
(MICROWAVE IMAGERY AMSRE 2158z AND TRMM 0154Z), AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARDS
OUTFLOW CHANNEL).
SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE)
, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. 
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE
TROUGH. BOLOETSE SHOULD TRACK TOAWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.