** WTIO22 FMEE 260009 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 12 UTC: 22.9S / 50.1E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 00 UTC: 23.6S / 49.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALGASY COASTLINE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260009 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 22.9S/50.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.6S/49.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.6S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 22.7S/47.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/48.1E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) AND ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING LAST HOURS INTO A LARGER CDO. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS MAKE IT SLOW DOWN THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS NORTH TO 24S, LANDING OVER MALAGASHY COAST AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 11.6N 114.3E 1002HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 9.0N 111.0E 1002HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 11.6N 114.3E 1002HPA 16M/S P12HR WSW 10KM/H P+24HR 9.0N 111.0E 1002HPA 16M/S= ** WTXS31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.2S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.7S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.9S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.7S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 50.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS NOW STARTED TO IMPROVE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 09S SHOULD REMAIN ON A POLEWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONTROLLED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS TC 09S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 50.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 50.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.2S 50.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.7S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.9S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.7S 49.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 50.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND SLOW AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST, THE TC WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTIO22 FMEE 260358 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 26/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 12 UTC: 22.9S / 50.1E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/27 AT 00 UTC: 23.6S / 49.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALGASY COASTLINE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260359 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 22.9S/50.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.6S/49.8E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.6S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 22.7S/47.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/46.1E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) AND ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING LAST HOURS INTO A LARGER CDO. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS MAKE IT SLOW DOWN THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS NORTH TO 24S, LANDING OVER MALAGASHY COAST AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD.=