** WTIO22 FMEE 251813 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 50.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND THE EASTERN SECTOR. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 25/30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 06 UTC: 22.0S / 50.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 18 UTC: 22.8S / 49.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SEEMS TO WEAK DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALGASY COASTLINE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251813 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 50.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 22.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 22.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 22.7S/48.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 22.1S/48.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 21.5S/47.4E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 22.3S/45.7E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE). SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS MAKE IT SLOW DOWN THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS, LANDING OVER MALAGASHY COAST AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 13.4N 115.4E 1002HPA 14M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.2N 111.0E 1002HPA 14M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 13.4N 115.4E 1002HPA 14M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.2N 111.0E 1002HPA 14M/S=