** WTIO22 FMEE 251220 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 50.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 25/30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 00 UTC: 21.4S / 50.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 12 UTC: 22.1S / 49.8E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SEEMS TO WEAK DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND VEERING WESTWARDS TOWARDS MALGASY COASTLINE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251226 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 50.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 21.4S/50.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 22.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 22.2S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 21.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0- BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE AND THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO WEAK DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 H PA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK AND A LOT OF OPTIONS MAY POSSIBLE.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.0E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 9.0N 112.3E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.0E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 9.0N 112.3E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTXS31 PGTW 251500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/251351ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.6S 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.7S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.3S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.6S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 50.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS NOW STARTED TO IMPROVE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 09S SHOULD REMAIN ON A POLEWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING FLOW IS CONTROLLED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS TC 09S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND OUTFLOW BECOMES DAMPENED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//