** WTIO22 FMEE 250620 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 50.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 25/30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 18 UTC: 20.8S / 50.5E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 06 UTC: 21.8S / 49.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A BETTER ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED DURING THE NIGHT. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AND VEERING SOUTHWARDS ALONG MALGASY COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 50.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 21.8S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 22.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 24.9S/47.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC R EMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. NWP MODEL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK. ARPEGE TROPIQUES FORECAST IT TO TRACK RATHER QUICK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH AND THEN TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRATROPIACL AREA AT MEDIUM RANGE. ECMWF FORECAST IT TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN IT WOULDN'T EVACUATE IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 50.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 21.8S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 22.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 24.9S/47.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC R EMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. NWP MODEL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK. ARPEGE TROPIQUES FORECAST IT TO TRACK RATHER QUICK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH AND THEN TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRATROPIACL AREA AT MEDIUM RANGE. ECMWF FORECAST IT TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN IT WOULDN'T EVACUATE IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 113.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 113.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 113.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 12.6N 115.6E 1000HPA 16M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 113.3E 996HPA 18M/S=