** WTIO22 FMEE 250028 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 51.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 49.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/26 AT 00 UTC: 21.4S / 48.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A BETTER ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWARDS AND TRACKING ALONG MALGASY COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250032 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 51.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 20.0S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 21.4S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 29.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 31.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; T HE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE VERRING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE MALGASY COASTLINE, MAINTAINING STORMY WEATHER OVER THIS AREA, A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250032 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 51.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 20.0S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 21.4S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 29.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 31.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; T HE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE VERRING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE MALGASY COASTLINE, MAINTAINING STORMY WEATHER OVER THIS AREA, A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. . ** WTPN21 PGTW 250530 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 98X XXX 060125000000 2006012500 12.1 118.7 11.4 111.0 170 12.0 117.7 250530 0601250521 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250521Z JAN 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 118.7E TO 11.4N 111.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260530Z. // WP, 98, 2006011906, , BEST, 0, 51N, 1349E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006011912, , BEST, 0, 54N, 1342E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006011918, , BEST, 0, 59N, 1334E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012000, , BEST, 0, 64N, 1326E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012006, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1318E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012012, , BEST, 0, 73N, 1312E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012018, , BEST, 0, 77N, 1306E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012100, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1300E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012106, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1294E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012112, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1294E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012118, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1289E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012200, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1286E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012206, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1285E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012212, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1284E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012218, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1279E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012300, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1271E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1261E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1254E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012318, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1246E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012400, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1240E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, WP, 98, 2006012406, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1226E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012412, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1210E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012418, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1192E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 98, 2006012500, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1177E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, ** WTIN20 DEMS 250605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 25-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONNECTION CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH OF ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 200 HPA LEVEL AT AROUND 07 DEG NORTH(.)