** WTXS21 PGTW 242130 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/242121ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 51.7E TO 22.0S 49.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 51.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S
52.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
WEST OF LA REUNION. A 241918Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER A VERY SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
DISTURBANCE INDICATE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND AND PRESSURES RANGING
BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1014 MB, IT IS LIKELY THAT OBSERVATION COVERAGE
IS UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252130Z.//




** WTPH RPLL 241800 ***
GALE WARNING NO.04

FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON

ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY, 25 JANUARY 2006.


THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST

MONSOON AS ENHANCED BY THE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA)

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN, WESTERN

AND EASTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON AND EASTERN SEABOARD OF

VISAYAS.


THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON AND VISAYAS WILL EXPERIENCE

CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINS. WINDS OF

28 TO 50KPH (16 TO 32KNOTS) AREA EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS

WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1.25 TO

4.0 METERS. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL

BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINS. WINDS OF

39 TO 72KPH (22 TO 40 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS

WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.50 TO

6.0 METERS.


FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO

VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS AREA ALERTED

AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES.


WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5PM TODAY.