** WTIO22 FMEE 241212 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 3/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 1006 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 00 UTC: 19.6S / 51.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 12 UTC: 21.0S / 49.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW NEARER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINES OF MADAGASCAR WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 19.6S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 24.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 28.5S/50.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEUTRAL TO RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DISPITE THE SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28AOC. EQUATORWARD, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURGE IS WEAK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF MADAGASCAR AND POLARWARD THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST DON'T PERMIT A GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE. THERE IS NO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW, REQUIRED FOR A DURABLY CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY . CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALSO DISORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WINDS FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE AND STOMLY WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION'S ISLANDS. THE DEEPEST CLUSTERS EVACUATE PROGRESSIVELY MAURITIUS ISLAND AND WILL CONCERN REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS CIRCULATION WITHOUT INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW CLOSER THE EASTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 19.6S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 24.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 28.5S/50.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEUTRAL TO RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DISPITE THE SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28AOC. EQUATORWARD, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURGE IS WEAK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF MADAGASCAR AND POLARWARD THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST DON'T PERMIT A GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE. THERE IS NO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW, REQUIRED FOR A DURABLY CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY . CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALSO DISORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WINDS FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE AND STOMLY WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION'S ISLANDS. THE DEEPEST CLUSTERS EVACUATE PROGRESSIVELY MAURITIUS ISLAND AND WILL CONCERN REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS CIRCULATION WITHOUT INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW CLOSER THE EASTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 19.6S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 24.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 28.5S/50.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEUTRAL TO RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DISPITE THE SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28AoC. EQUATORWARD, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURGE IS WEAK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF MADAGASCAR AND POLARWARD THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST DON'T PERMIT A GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE. THERE IS NO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW, REQUIRED FOR A DURABLY CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY .. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALSO DISORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WINDS FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE AND STOMLY WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION'S ISLANDS. THE DEEPEST CLUSTERS EVACUATE PROGRESSIVELY MAURITIUS ISLAND AND WILL CONCERN REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS CIRCULATION WITHOUT INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW CLOSER THE EASTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIO22 FMEE 241225 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 1006 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 00 UTC: 19.6S / 51.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 12 UTC: 21.0S / 49.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW NEARER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINES OF MADAGASCAR WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=