** WTIO22 FMEE 240618 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 1007 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/24 AT 18 UTC: 18.8S / 51.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 06 UTC: 20.1S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY, WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS RATHER WEAK AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RATHER HIGH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY . AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 240618 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 1007 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/24 AT 18 UTC: 18.8S / 51.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 06 UTC: 20.1S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY, WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS RATHER WEAK AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RATHER HIGH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY . AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 06 UTC: 20.1S/50.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 25.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 27.5S/48.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. OVER THE MASCAREIGNE'S AREA, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, PERIPHERICS CURVED BANDS, LOCATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WIND FLOW, SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP MODEL INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 06 UTC: 20.1S/50.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 25.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 27.5S/48.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. OVER THE MASCAREIGNE'S AREA, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, PERIPHERICS CURVED BANDS, LOCATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WIND FLOW, SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP MODEL INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 240618 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/01/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 002/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 24/01/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 8 1007 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A PLUS DE 400MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/01/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.8S / 51.5E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 25/01/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.1S / 50.4E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DE BASSE COUCHE PRESENTE UNE BELLE ORGANISATION, BIEN CIRCULAIRE, MAIS RESTE DE FAIBLE INTENSITE, AVEC DES VENTS ASSOCIES ASSEZ FAIBLES ET UNE PRESSION MINIMALE RELATIVEMENT ELEVEE. ELLE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SANS S'INTENSIFIER DE MANIERE SIGNIFICATIVE. A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. ** WTIO22 FMEE 240618 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 1007 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/24 AT 18 UTC: 18.8S / 51.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 06 UTC: 20.1S / 50.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY, WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS RATHER WEAK AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RATHER HIGH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY .. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 240622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 06 UTC: 20.1S/50.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 25.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 27.5S/48.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. OVER THE MASCAREIGNE'S AREA, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, PERIPHERICS CURVED BANDS, LOCATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WIND FLOW, SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP MODEL INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. ** WTIN20 DEMS 240640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 24-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONNECTION CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 200 HPA LEVEL AT 10 DEG NORTH(.)