** WTIO22 FMEE 240023 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/01/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 1007 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 53.4E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 10/20KT, REACHING LOCALLY 25KT NEAR THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/01/24 AT 12 UTC: 18.9S / 52.1E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/01/25 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 50.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY, WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS RATHER WEAK AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RATHER HIGH. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240053 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 53.4E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 12 UTC: 18.9S/52.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 20.0S/50.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE CENTRE HAS PASSED AT 50KM SOUTH-EAST OF TROMELIN ISLAND THE 01/23 AT 1100Z, THE MSLP RECCORDED WAS 1009HPA AND THE MAXIMUM WIND (10MIN AVERAGE ) WAS ONLY 16KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RETFER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, HARDLY INTENSIFIES AND CONSOLIDATES DURABLY. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TO MALAGASSY COATS AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 240000 *** T T T WARNING 13 (FINAL) AT 0000 24 JANUARY THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS WEAKNED INTO AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AND WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND FORECAST POSITION AT 250000 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTPH RPLL 240000 *** TTT WARNING 13 (FINAL) AT 0000 24 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS WEAKENED INTO AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AND WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND FORECAST POSITIONS AT 250000 ONE ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD=