** WTAU05 APRF 211857 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1855UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal one south [20.1S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal four east [115.4E] Recent movement: west southwest 5 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 65 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 40/50 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell easing below 48 knots by 22/0100UTC. Within 65 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.5 south 114.9 east Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.9 east Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 22 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 211857 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1855UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal one south [20.1S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal four east [115.4E] Recent movement: west southwest 5 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 65 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 40/50 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell easing below 48 knots by 22/0100UTC. Within 65 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.5 south 114.9 east Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.4 south 113.9 east Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 22 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 211900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal one south [20.1S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal four east [115.4E] Recent movement: west southwest 5 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 65 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 40/50 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell easing below 48 knots by 22/0100UTC. Within 65 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.6 south 114.1 east Central pressure 985 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.1 south 113.2 east Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 22 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 211900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal one south [20.1S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal four east [115.4E] Recent movement: west southwest 5 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 65 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 40/50 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell easing below 48 knots by 22/0100UTC. Within 65 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 20.6 south 114.1 east Central pressure 985 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.1 south 113.2 east Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 22 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPH20 RPMM 211800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 21 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221800 ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 231800 ONE ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 241800 ONE TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THRE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 211800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 21 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.2 NORTH 127.8 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 13 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221800 11.3 NORTH 125.7 EAST AT 231800 11.9 NORTH 123.6 EAST AND AT 241800 12.1 NORTH 121.1 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTXS31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING // RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 115.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 115.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.4S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.1S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.8S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.7S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 115.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED EAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION. THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED TO ACCURATELY DEPICT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTION OF A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON ENHANCE INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES. CURRENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DECREASE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 211647Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LLCC IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION BY APPROXIMATELY 50 NM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//