** WTIN20 DEMS 210605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 200 HPA LEVEL AT 11 DEG. NORTH (.) ** WTAU05 APRF 210646 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S116E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five south [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal two east [116.2E] Recent movement: west southwest 6 knots. Maximum winds: 55 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants extending to within 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: 45/63 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Winds reaching 65 knots near the centre by 0600UTC 22 January with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants extending to within 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 21 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 20.0 south 115.0 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.6 south 113.9 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 21 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 210646 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S116E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 21 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five south [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal two east [116.2E] Recent movement: west southwest 6 knots. Maximum winds: 55 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants extending to within 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: 45/63 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Winds reaching 65 knots near the centre by 0600UTC 22 January with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in southern quadrants extending to within 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 21 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 20.0 south 115.0 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 22 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.6 south 113.9 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 21 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 115.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 115.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.2S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.0S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.7S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.8S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 115.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A CONTINUED DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 210600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 21 JANUARY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220600 ONE ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 230600 ONE ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST AND AT 240600 ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 210600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 21 JANUARY TROP DEP WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220600 ONE ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 230600 ONE ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST AT AT 240600 ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=