** WTIN20 DEMS 200620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 200 HPA LEVEL AT 16 DEG. NORTH (.) ** WTAU05 APRF 200710 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:18S120E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0655UTC 20 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 18.1 south Longitude 120.5 east Recent movement: southwest 8 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 30 nautical miles to the SE of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in the northwest quadrants. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 48/58 knot winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles to the SE of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in the northwest quadrants: Clockwise winds above 33 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 19.2 south 119.0 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 20.6 south 117.6 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 20 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200710 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:18S120E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0655UTC 20 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 18.1 south Longitude 120.5 east Recent movement: southwest 8 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 30 nautical miles to the SE of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in the northwest quadrants. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 48/58 knot winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles to the SE of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in the northwest quadrants: Clockwise winds above 33 knots with very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 19.2 south 119.0 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 20.6 south 117.6 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 20 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 120.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 120.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.8S 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.5S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.9S 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.4S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.2S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 120.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. A 200112Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS VERIFIES THAT TC 08S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08S WILL MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. MOREOVER, AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 120.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 120.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.8S 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.5S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.9S 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.4S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.2S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 120.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED SEVERAL HOURS AGO. A 200112Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS VERIFIES THAT TC 08S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08S WILL MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. MOREOVER, AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300, AND 210900//