** WTAU05 APRF 191906 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:17S121E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1900UTC 19 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude 16.8 south Longitude 121.5 east Recent movement: west 4 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 65 knots by 1800UTC 20 January with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: 48/63 knot winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 20 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 17.7 south 120.7 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.1 south 119.1 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 20 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 191906 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:17S121E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1900UTC 19 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude 16.8 south Longitude 121.5 east Recent movement: west 4 knots. Maximum winds: 50 knots. Central pressure: 975 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 65 knots by 1800UTC 20 January with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: 48/63 knot winds with high to very high seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 20 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 17.7 south 120.7 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.1 south 119.1 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 20 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 121.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 121.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.3S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.5S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.5S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.2S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.8S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 120.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRENGTHENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 191701Z TRMM PASS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST LINE AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO LEARMONTH. THE INTENSITY WILL INCREASE HOWEVER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL STRENGTHEN AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 121.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 121.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.3S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.5S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.5S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.2S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.8S 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 120.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRENGTHENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 191701Z TRMM PASS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST LINE AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO LEARMONTH. THE INTENSITY WILL INCREASE HOWEVER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT WILL STRENGTHEN AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//