** WTAU05 APRF 181859 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181859 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181859 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181859 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1859UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181924 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1923UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181924 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1923UTC 18 JANUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude 15.8 south Longitude 122.8 east Recent movement: west southwest 3 knots. Maximum winds: 40 knots. Central pressure: 984 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 50 knots by 0600UTC 19 January with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 50 nautical miles of the centre extending to 80 nautical miles in northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 16.4 south 121.9 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.9 south 120.7 east Central pressure 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 19 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS21 PGTW 182000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/181951ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 123.3E TO 17.2S 120.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 123.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 122.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 123.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD OFF SHORE ALTHOUGH MORE RECENT POSITION INFORMATION INDICATES THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED POSITION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DEPICT ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LARGE SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA THAT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE WEST AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT ADELE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REPORTS WINDS AT 43 KTS. AT MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 192000Z.//