** WTPS01 NFFN 150000 *** Storm Warning 020 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 15/0112 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [985hPa] centre was located near 23.8 South 171.3 West at 150000 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 23.8S 171.3W at 150000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 20 knots. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 27.4S 169.8W at 151200 UTC and near 29.4S 168.2W at 160000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 019. ** WTPS01 NFFN 150000 *** Storm Warning 020 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 15/0112 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [985hPa] centre was located near 23.8 South 171.3 West at 150000 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 23.8S 171.3W at 150000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 20 knots. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 27.4S 169.8W at 151200 UTC and near 29.4S 168.2W at 160000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 019. ** WTPS12 NFFN 150000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 15/0202 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8S 171.3W AT 150000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. URMIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREES SOUTH OF EXPOSED LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DT2.5. MET=2.5, PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT AND PT, THUS T2.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS. URMIL REMAINS UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA REGION BUT STEADILY MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. URMIL IS BEING STEERED POLEWARD BY DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 27.4S 169.8W MOV SSE AT 20KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 29.4S 168.2W MOV SSE AT 16KT WITH 35KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 31.1S 166.8W MOV SSE AT 14KT WITH 30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 32.8S 165.2W MOV SSE AT 13KT WITH 25KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150800 UTC UNLESS CENTRE IS SOUTH OF 25 SOUTH. ** WTPS12 NFFN 150000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B6 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 15/0202 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [985hPa] centre was located near 23.8S 171.3W at 150000 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots close to the centre decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Urmil continues to weaken. Deep convection displaced about 0.5 degrees south of exposed llcc. Overall organisation decreasing significantly. Shear pattern yields a DT2.5. MET=2.5, PT=2.5. FT based on DT and PT, thus T2.5/3.5/W0.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but steadily moving into stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Urmil is being steered poleward by deep northwest winds. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 27.4S 169.8W mov SSE at 20kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 29.4S 168.2W mov SSE at 16kt with 35kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 31.1S 166.8W mov SSE at 14kt with 30kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 170000 UTC near 32.8S 165.2W mov SSE at 13kt with 25kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150800 UTC unless centre is south of 25 South. ** WTPS12 NFFN 150000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B6 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 15/0202 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [985hPa] centre was located near 23.8S 171.3W at 150000 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots close to the centre decreasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Urmil continues to weaken. Deep convection displaced about 0.5 degrees south of exposed llcc. Overall organisation decreasing significantly. Shear pattern yields a DT2.5. MET=2.5, PT=2.5. FT based on DT and PT, thus T2.5/3.5/W0.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but steadily moving into stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Urmil is being steered poleward by deep northwest winds. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 27.4S 169.8W mov SSE at 20kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 29.4S 168.2W mov SSE at 16kt with 35kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 31.1S 166.8W mov SSE at 14kt with 30kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 170000 UTC near 32.8S 165.2W mov SSE at 13kt with 25kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150800 UTC unless centre is south of 25 South.