** WTPS01 NFFN 141800 *** Storm Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1912 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3 South 171.9 West at 141800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 26.4S 170.3W at 150600 UTC and near 28.0S 169.6W at 151800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS01 NFFN 141800 *** Storm Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1912 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3 South 171.9 West at 141800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 26.4S 170.3W at 150600 UTC and near 28.0S 169.6W at 151800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 018. ** WTPS12 NFFN 141800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/2008 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further at least in the next 12 hours before slowing. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Urmil has weakened past 6 hours. Deep convective tops about centre have warmed considerably and decreased spatially. Overall organisation decreased. Embedded centre yields a T4 with MG shade. VIS curved band yields a strong T3.5 with a 1.0 wrap. Thus Dvorak analysis yields T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but is moving into significant shear. Outflow fair to south and east. Urmil is being steered southeast by deep northwest winds. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.4S 170.3W mov SE at 20kt with 50 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 28.0S 169.6W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.8S 168.7W mov SE at 12kt with 40kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 161800 UTC near 29.5S 167.6W mov SE at 10kt with 30kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150200 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 141800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/2008 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further at least in the next 12 hours before slowing. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Urmil has weakened past 6 hours. Deep convective tops about centre have warmed considerably and decreased spatially. Overall organisation decreased. Embedded centre yields a T4 with MG shade. VIS curved band yields a strong T3.5 with a 1.0 wrap. Thus Dvorak analysis yields T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa region but is moving into significant shear. Outflow fair to south and east. Urmil is being steered southeast by deep northwest winds. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.4S 170.3W mov SE at 20kt with 50 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 28.0S 169.6W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.8S 168.7W mov SE at 12kt with 40kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 161800 UTC near 29.5S 167.6W mov SE at 10kt with 30kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 150200 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 141800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 14/2008 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 171.9W AT 141800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER AT LEAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SLOWING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. URMIL HAS WEAKENED PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTIVE TOPS ABOUT CENTRE HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND DECREASED SPATIALLY. OVERALL ORGANISATION DECREASED. EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDS A T4 WITH MG SHADE. VIS CURVED BAND YIELDS A STRONG T3.5 WITH A 1.0 WRAP. THUS DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. URMIL REMAINS UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA REGION BUT IS MOVING INTO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. OUTFLOW FAIR TO SOUTH AND EAST. URMIL IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 26.4S 170.3W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 28.0S 169.6W MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 28.8S 168.7W MOV SE AT 12KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 29.5S 167.6W MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. END PART 01 ** WTPS12 NFFN 141800 *** PART 02 THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150200 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTIO31 PGTW 142100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 7.9N 70.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 70.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 9.2N 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 10.2N 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 8.2N 70.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVEC- TION AND A 141348z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 10 FEET.//