** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 141200 *** Storm Warning 018 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1243 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8 South 172.8 West at 141200 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 19.8S 172.8W at 141200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further and curve southsoutheast. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 23.6S 171.4W at 150000 UTC and near 27.6S 169.2W at 151200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 017. ** WTPS01 NFFN 141200 *** Storm Warning 018 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1243 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8 South 172.8 West at 141200 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 19.8S 172.8W at 141200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further and curve southsoutheast. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 23.6S 171.4W at 150000 UTC and near 27.6S 169.2W at 151200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 017. ** WTPS12 NFFN 141200 *** PART 02 36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 32.1S 165.8W MOV SE AT 30KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 36.6S 162.0W MOV SE AT 35KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 142000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS12 NFFN 141200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 14/1401 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 172.8W AT 141200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHSOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE. URMIL HAS UNDERGONE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND HAS COMPLETELY WOUND AROUND LLCC. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 1.1 LOG-10 SPIRAL WRAP, GIVES A DT=PT=4.0 AND MET=3.0, YIELDS T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS BREAKING CONSTRAINTS. URMIL REMAINS UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS, HOWEVER RESULTANT SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. SST AROUND 29C. URMIL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHSOUTHEAST BY DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIROMENT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 23.6S 171.4W MOV SSE AT 20KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 27.6S 169.2W MOV SSE AT 25KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: END PART 01 ** WTPS12 NFFN 141200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1401 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8S 172.8W at 141200 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving south at 20 knots and expected to curve southsoutheast and accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Urmil has undergone explosive development in the last 6 hours. Primary band has completely wound around LLCC. Dvorak analysis based on a 1.1 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=4.0 and MET=3.0, yields T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24hrs breaking constraints. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa flow ahead of an approaching trough. Outflow good in all quadrants. Environmental shear is around 20 knots, however resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Urmil is expected to be steered southsoutheast by deep north to northwest winds into an increasingly sheared enviroment. Latest satellite image indicates slight warming of convective cloud tops. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.6S 171.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 60 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 27.6S 169.2W mov SSE at 25kt with 60 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 32.1S 165.8W mov SE at 30kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 36.6S 162.0W mov SE at 35kt with 40kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 142000 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 141200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1401 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8S 172.8W at 141200 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving south at 20 knots and expected to curve southsoutheast and accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Urmil has undergone explosive development in the last 6 hours. Primary band has completely wound around LLCC. Dvorak analysis based on a 1.1 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=4.0 and MET=3.0, yields T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24hrs breaking constraints. Urmil remains under divergent 250-hPa flow ahead of an approaching trough. Outflow good in all quadrants. Environmental shear is around 20 knots, however resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Urmil is expected to be steered southsoutheast by deep north to northwest winds into an increasingly sheared enviroment. Latest satellite image indicates slight warming of convective cloud tops. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.6S 171.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 60 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 27.6S 169.2W mov SSE at 25kt with 60 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 32.1S 165.8W mov SE at 30kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 36.6S 162.0W mov SE at 35kt with 40kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 142000 UTC. ** WTIN20 DEMS 141640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) SUB:- DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MORNING'S DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS,WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 14TH JANUARY 2006 NEAR LAT.7.0 DEG N AND LONG. 73.0 DEG E. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES SOUTHERN PART OF LAKSHADWEEP AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MSG OVER ????/