** WTIN20 DEMS 140652 ***


            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

            ------------------------

DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-01-2006 (.) 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF 

BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600

UTC (.)



 SUB:- DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA 

 

YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED

WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION

AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 14TH JANUARY 2006 NEAR

LAT.5.5 DEG N AND LONG.75.5 DEG E. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY

TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY

DIRECTION.



   BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN 

OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES SOUTHERN PART OF LAKSHADWEEP

AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH 

THIS SYSTEM.






** WTPS01 NFFN 140600 ***
Gale Warning 017 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0712 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South

173.2 West at 140600 UTC.  

Position poor.  

Repeat position 17.8S 173.2W at 140600 UTC.

Cyclone moving southsoutheast at about 18 knots and expected to

accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to

45 knots in the next 12 hours. 

Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. 

Forecast position near 21.7S 172.4W at 141800 UTC              

              and near 25.5S 170.6W at 150600 UTC.



All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to

send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use

normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc

at met dot gov dot fj.



This warning cancels and replaces warning 015.




** WTPS01 NFFN 140600     ***
Gale Warning 017 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0712 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South
173.2 West at 140600 UTC.  
Position poor.  
Repeat position 17.8S 173.2W at 140600 UTC.
Cyclone moving southsoutheast at about 18 knots and expected to
accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to
45 knots in the next 12 hours. 
Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. 
Forecast position near 21.7S 172.4W at 141800 UTC              
              and near 25.5S 170.6W at 150600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 015.




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3  issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8S

173.2W at 140600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery

with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving

southsoutheast 18 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum

10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre

increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33

knots within 100 miles of centre. 



Primary band continues to wrap tightly around LLCC. Fanning of cirrus

indicates improved outflow channels to the south and west, and

becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral

wrap, gives a DT=PT=3.0 and MET=2.5, yields T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12hrs.

Urmil lies under divergent 250-hpa flow ahead of an approaching

trough. Environmental shear is around 10 to 20 knots, however

resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational

speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Global models that have

captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some

initial intensification. 



FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 21.7S 172.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 45

kt close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.5S 170.6W mov SSE at 25kt with 45

kt close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 29.8S 167.7W mov SE at 28kt with 40kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 34.4S 164.1W mov SE at 30kt with 40kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will

be issued around 141400 UTC.



 




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3  issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8S
173.2W at 140600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southsoutheast 18 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum
10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre
increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33
knots within 100 miles of centre. 

Primary band continues to wrap tightly around LLCC. Fanning of cirrus
indicates improved outflow channels to the south and west, and
becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral
wrap, gives a DT=PT=3.0 and MET=2.5, yields T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12hrs.
Urmil lies under divergent 250-hpa flow ahead of an approaching
trough. Environmental shear is around 10 to 20 knots, however
resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational
speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Global models that have
captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some
initial intensification. 

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 21.7S 172.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 45
kt close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.5S 170.6W mov SSE at 25kt with 45
kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 29.8S 167.7W mov SE at 28kt with 40kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 34.4S 164.1W mov SE at 30kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will
be issued around 141400 UTC.

 




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S

173.2W AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING

SOUTHSOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM

10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33

KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. 


PRIMARY BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. FANNING OF CIRRUS

INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AND

BECOMING GOOD ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.6 LOG-10 SPIRAL

WRAP, GIVES A DT=PT=3.0 AND MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600     ***

PART 02


2.5, YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS.

URMIL LIES UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING

TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS, HOWEVER

RESULTANT SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING TRANSLATIONAL

SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE

CAPTURED THE SYSTEM MOVE IT RATHER RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH SOME

INITIAL INTENSIFICATION. 


FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 21.7S 172.4W MOV SSE AT 20KT WITH 45

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 25.5S 170.6W MOV SSE AT 25KT WITH 45

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 29.8S 167.7W MOV SE AT 28KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 34.4S 164.1W MOV SE AT 30KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL

BE ISSUED AROUND 141400 UTC.


 


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600     ***
PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S

173.2W AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING

SOUTHSOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM

10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33

KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. 


PRIMARY BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. FANNING OF CIRRUS

INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AND

BECOMING GOOD ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.6 LOG-10 SPIRAL

WRAP, GIVES A DT=PT=3.0 AND MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS12 NFFN 140600     ***
PART 02


2.5, YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS.

URMIL LIES UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING

TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS, HOWEVER

RESULTANT SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING TRANSLATIONAL

SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE

CAPTURED THE SYSTEM MOVE IT RATHER RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH SOME

INITIAL INTENSIFICATION. 


FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 21.7S 172.4W MOV SSE AT 20KT WITH 45

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 25.5S 170.6W MOV SSE AT 25KT WITH 45

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 29.8S 167.7W MOV SE AT 28KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 34.4S 164.1W MOV SE AT 30KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL

BE ISSUED AROUND 141400 UTC.


 


END PART 02 OF 02