** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 140000 *** Gale Warning 016 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0054 UTC 2006 UTC. REFER TO WARNING 165 ON TC TAM ISSUED BY TCWC WELLINGTON AT 132300 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to TCWC WELLINGTON. This warning cancels and replaces warning 014. ** WTPS01 NFFN 140000 *** Gale Warning 016 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0054 UTC 2006 UTC. REFER TO WARNING 165 ON TC TAM ISSUED BY TCWC WELLINGTON AT 132300 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to TCWC WELLINGTON. This warning cancels and replaces warning 014. ** WTPS02 NFFN 140000 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0116 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1 South 173.6 West at 140000 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.1S 173.6W at 140000 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.8S 172.2W at 141200 UTC and near 21.2S 171.7W at 150000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 140000 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0116 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1 South 173.6 West at 140000 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.1S 173.6W at 140000 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.8S 172.2W at 141200 UTC and near 21.2S 171.7W at 150000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 140000 CCA *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0153 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to position.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1 South 173.7 West at 140000 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.1S 173.7W at 140000 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.8S 172.2W at 141200 UTC and near 21.2S 171.7W at 150000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 140000 CCA *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0153 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to position.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1 South 173.7 West at 140000 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.1S 173.7W at 140000 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.8S 172.2W at 141200 UTC and near 21.2S 171.7W at 150000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 167.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 40 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 167.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 35.0S 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 45 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 43.2S 159.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 166.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED HAVE CAUSED TC 06P TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 5 FEET.// ** WTPS22 PGTW 140230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/140222ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S 174.2W TO 23.0S 172.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 173.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 174.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 173.8W, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANAYSIS REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150230Z.// ** WTPS12 NFFN 140000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0223 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1S 173.7W at 140000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Organisation increasing steadily. Primary band continues to wrap tightly around llcc. Some intrusion of environmental air and shear still apparent. Outflow good to east and north, fair to south and restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral wrap giving a T3. PT=3. Thus T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies under divergent 250-hpa flow and 20 to 25-kt shear. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some initial intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 18.8S 172.2W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 21.2S 171.7W mov SE at 20kt with 45 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 24.8S 169.0W mov SE at 20kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 28.3S 167.7W mov SE at 20kt with 45kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 1408000 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 140000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0223 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 16.1S 173.7W at 140000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 15 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre. Organisation increasing steadily. Primary band continues to wrap tightly around llcc. Some intrusion of environmental air and shear still apparent. Outflow good to east and north, fair to south and restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral wrap giving a T3. PT=3. Thus T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies under divergent 250-hpa flow and 20 to 25-kt shear. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some initial intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 18.8S 172.2W mov SE at 15kt with 45 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 21.2S 171.7W mov SE at 20kt with 45 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 24.8S 169.0W mov SE at 20kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 28.3S 167.7W mov SE at 20kt with 45kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 1408000 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 140000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 14/0223 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL 06F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 173.7W AT 140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. ORGANISATION INCREASING STEADILY. PRIMARY BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. SOME INTRUSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AIR AND SHEAR STILL APPARENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH, FAIR TO SOUTH AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.6 LOG-10 SPIRAL WRAP GIVING A T3. PT=3. THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA FLOW AND 20 TO 25-KT SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM MOVE IT RATHER RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INITIAL INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 18.8S 172.2W MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 21.2S 171.7W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 24.8S 169.0W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 28.3S 167.7W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1408000 UTC.