** WTPS01 NFFN 131800 *** Gale Warning 014 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South 169.3 West at 131800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 23.6S 169.3W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 23 knots and expected to accelerate further. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 28.0S 168.1W at 140600 UTC and near 32.5S 165.6W at 141800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 012. ** WTPS01 NFFN 131800 *** Gale Warning 014 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South 169.3 West at 131800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 23.6S 169.3W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at 23 knots and expected to accelerate further. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 28.0S 168.1W at 140600 UTC and near 32.5S 165.6W at 141800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 012. ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1957 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South 169.3 West at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 23 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection decreased and tops warmed significantly past 6 hours. Warm dry air entrainment together with increasing shear influencing system. Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap giving a T2.5. MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Thus T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24hrs. Tam remains under a divergent 250-hpa region. Outflow good to east and south but restricted elsewhere. Cyclone caught under strong northwest steering regime. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.0S 168.1W mov SE at 23 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 32.5S 165.6W mov SE at 25 kt with 40 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 39.5S 162.2W mov SE at 33 kt with 35 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 42.9S 162.7W mov SE at 30 kt with 30 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 140200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1957 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South 169.3 West at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 23 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection decreased and tops warmed significantly past 6 hours. Warm dry air entrainment together with increasing shear influencing system. Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap giving a T2.5. MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Thus T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24hrs. Tam remains under a divergent 250-hpa region. Outflow good to east and south but restricted elsewhere. Cyclone caught under strong northwest steering regime. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.0S 168.1W mov SE at 23 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 32.5S 165.6W mov SE at 25 kt with 40 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 39.5S 162.2W mov SE at 33 kt with 35 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 42.9S 162.7W mov SE at 30 kt with 30 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 140200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/1957 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH 169.3 WEST AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED AND TOPS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. WARM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TOGETHER WITH INCREASING SHEAR INFLUENCING SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP GIVING A T2.5. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. TAM REMAINS UNDER A DIVERGENT 250-HPA REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE CAUGHT UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST STEERING REGIME. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 28.0S 168.1W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 32.5S 165.6W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 39.5S 162.2W MOV SE AT 33 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 42.9S 162.7W MOV SE AT 30 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140200 UTC. ** WTIO31 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130821ZJAN2006// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 5.7N 76.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 5.7N 76.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 6.9N 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 7.5N 72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 7.8N 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 8.0N 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 6.0N 75.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 131232Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE, 131512Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 130751ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 130800). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTPS12 NFFN 131800 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/2047 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.0W AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 06F ERUPTED OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT. ORGANISATION NOW GOOD AND INCREASING. DEEP CONVECTION COOLING STEADILY. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. SOME INDICATION THOUGH OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH BUT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. DEPRESSION LIES UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA FLOW AND 20 TO 25-KT SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM MOVE IT RATHER RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 06F TO BECOME A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO GOOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140230 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2047 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 06F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.0S 174.0W at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. 06F erupted overnight with rapid development. Organisation now good and increasing. Deep convection cooling steadily. Primary band to east wrapping tightly around llcc. Some indication though of environmental influence. Outflow good to east and north but developing elsewhere. Depression lies under divergent 250-hpa flow and 20 to 25-kt shear. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some intensification. Potential for 06F to become a cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to good. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 06F will be issued around 140230 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2047 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 06F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.0S 174.0W at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. 06F erupted overnight with rapid development. Organisation now good and increasing. Deep convection cooling steadily. Primary band to east wrapping tightly around llcc. Some indication though of environmental influence. Outflow good to east and north but developing elsewhere. Depression lies under divergent 250-hpa flow and 20 to 25-kt shear. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some intensification. Potential for 06F to become a cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to good. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 06F will be issued around 140230 UTC. ** WTPS02 NFFN 132100 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2229 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 14210 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 132100 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2229 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 14210 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 132100 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2232 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 142100 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013 ** WTPS02 NFFN 132100 *** GALE WARNING 015 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/2232 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to forecast time.. Tropical Cyclone Urmil [995hPa] centre was located near 15.3 South 174.1 West at 132100 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.3S 174.1W at 132100 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 10 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. Forecast position near 17.2S 173.5W at 140900 UTC and near 18.9S 172.5W at 142100 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013