** WTIN20 DEMS 130700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-01-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE COMORIN AREA WITH IT'S CENTRE AT 130300 UTC NEAR LAT 5.0 DEG N AND LONG 79.0 DEG E UNDER IT'S INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER COMORIN-MALDIVES AREA.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARDS(.) ** WTPS01 NFFN 130600 *** Gale Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0719 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 18.2 South 171.0 West at 130600 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 18.2S 171.0W at 130600 UTC. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at 20 knots but expected to curve southeast and accelerate to 25 knots. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 21.9S 169.4W at 131800 UTC and near 27.0S 168.6W at 140600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 010. ** WTPS01 NFFN 130600 *** Gale Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0719 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 18.2 South 171.0 West at 130600 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 18.2S 171.0W at 130600 UTC. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at 20 knots but expected to curve southeast and accelerate to 25 knots. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 21.9S 169.4W at 131800 UTC and near 27.0S 168.6W at 140600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 010. ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0759 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 18.2 South 171.0 West at 130600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation, 0605 SSMI UTC pass and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to curve southeast and accelerate to 25 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Tam continues to maintain deep convection close to the LLCC. Shear increasing over system but the increased translational speed of the system is expected to result in negligible resultant shear in the short term. Dvorak analysis based on .4 wrap gives DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.0. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/S1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. Tam lies under a divergent 250-hpa region ahead of an approaching trough. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep environmental northwesterlies. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 169.4W mov SSE at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 27.0S 168.6W mov S at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 31.8S 168.8W mov S at 26 kt with 40 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 35.0S 168.0W mov SSE at 30 kt with 30 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 131400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0759 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 18.2 South 171.0 West at 130600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation, 0605 SSMI UTC pass and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and expected to curve southeast and accelerate to 25 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Tam continues to maintain deep convection close to the LLCC. Shear increasing over system but the increased translational speed of the system is expected to result in negligible resultant shear in the short term. Dvorak analysis based on .4 wrap gives DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.0. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/S1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. Tam lies under a divergent 250-hpa region ahead of an approaching trough. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep environmental northwesterlies. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast with decreasing chances of intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 169.4W mov SSE at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 27.0S 168.6W mov S at 25 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 31.8S 168.8W mov S at 26 kt with 40 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 35.0S 168.0W mov SSE at 30 kt with 30 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 131400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 13/0759 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2 SOUTH 171.0 WEST AT 130600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, 0605 SSMI UTC PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE TO 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. TAM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE LLCC. SHEAR INCREASING OVER SYSTEM BUT THE INCREASED TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE RESULTANT SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .4 WRAP GIVES DT=2.5, MET=3.0 AND PAT= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** PART 02 3.0. FT BASED ON MET YIELDS T3.0/3.0/S1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29C. TAM LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT 250-HPA REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. CYCLONE CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHWESTERLIES. CONSENSUS TRACK GRADUALLY TAKES TAM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.4W MOV SSE AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 27.0S 168.6W MOV S AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 31.8S 168.8W MOV S AT 26 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 35.0S 168.0W MOV SSE AT 30 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTIO21 PGTW 130830 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/130821ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 78.5E TO 5.9N 75.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 78.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 80.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 78.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140830Z.// ** WTZS81 NSTU 131100 *** HLSZS1 ASZ001>002-131100- TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 1200 AM SST FRI JAN 13 2006 ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA..AUNUU AND MANU'A ISLANDS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A GALE WARNING FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANU'A ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED. HOWEVER A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA. ...STORM INFORMATION... TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 SOUTH 170.5 WEST OR ABOUT 280 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TUTUILA AT 1000 PM THURSDAY. T.C. TAM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND FURTHER AWAY FROM SAMOA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED THAT HIGH SEAS FROM T.C. TAM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH SURF ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF AMERICAN SAMOA. ...WIND INFORMATION FOR MANU'A... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ...SURF IMPACTS... SURF OF 10 TO 14 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALL SHORES OF TUTUILA AND MANU'A. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES UNTIL SURF SUBSIDES. ...NEXT UPDATES... THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON T.C. TAM UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANTED. $$ PULETINI MO MATAGI MALOSI O TAM 1200 AM ASO FARAILE JAN 13 2006 ...FAUTUAGA MA LAPATAIGA... UA FAAMUTA NEI LE LAPATAIGA MO MATAGI MALOLOSI MO TUTUILA..AUNUU MA MANU'A. O LOO FAAAUAU PEA LE FAUTUAGA MO SAVILI MALOLOSI MO AMERIKA SAMOA. ...FAAMATALAGA O LE MATAGI MALOSI O TAM... O LE MATAGI MALOSI O TAM O LOO TAOTO NEI PE TUSA O LE 280 MAILA I SAUTE O TUTUILA MA O LOO AGA'I ATU PEA I SAUTE I 20 MPH MA ALU ESE ATU MA LE ATU SAMOA. ...O LE TETELE O GALU... O GALU E 10 I LE 14 FUTU LE MAUALULUGA O LE A A'AFIA AI TALAFATAI UMA O LE ATUNUU. ...TAPENAGA MA SAUNIUNIGA... E FAUTUAINA PEA LE MAMALU O LE ATU NUU INA IA TAGA'I ANE PEA I LE MAUALULUGA O GALU O LOO I AI NEI. O LE RIPOTI MULIMULI LENEI MO TAM. $$ AKAPO/PULETASI