** WTPS01 NFFN 121800 *** Gale Warning 009 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South 175.0 West at 121800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 175.0W at 121800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 19.7S 172.9W at 130600 UTC and near 24.4S 172.2W at 131800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 007. ** WTPS01 NFFN 121800 *** Gale Warning 009 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1915 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South 175.0 West at 121800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.0S 175.0W at 121800 UTC. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 19.7S 172.9W at 130600 UTC and near 24.4S 172.2W at 131800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 007. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/2024 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South 175.0 West at 121800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC located under southeast edge of CDO. Deep convection erupted past 6 hours and increased spatially. Overall organisation generally steady. Primary band to the east continues to be sheared off. Dvorak analysis based on .6 wrap thus T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Tam lies under divergent 250-hpa region. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep mean layer northwesterlies. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast after the next 24 hours. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 19.7S 172.9W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 24.4S 172.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.7S 172.7W mov S at 22 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 33.7S 171.0W mov SE at 33 kt with 45 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 130200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/2024 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 16.0 South 175.0 West at 121800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC located under southeast edge of CDO. Deep convection erupted past 6 hours and increased spatially. Overall organisation generally steady. Primary band to the east continues to be sheared off. Dvorak analysis based on .6 wrap thus T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Tam lies under divergent 250-hpa region. Cyclone currently steered southeast by deep mean layer northwesterlies. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours. Consensus track gradually takes Tam towards the south-southeast after the next 24 hours. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 19.7S 172.9W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 24.4S 172.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.7S 172.7W mov S at 22 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 33.7S 171.0W mov SE at 33 kt with 45 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 130200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/2024 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0 SOUTH 175.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. LLCC LOCATED UNDER SOUTHEAST EDGE OF CDO. DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTED PAST 6 HOURS AND INCREASED SPATIALLY. OVERALL ORGANISATION GENERALLY STEADY. PRIMARY BAND TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED OFF. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .6 WRAP THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29C. CIMSS INDICATES 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. TAM LIES UNDER DIVERGENT 250-HPA REGION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP MEAN LAYER NORTHWESTERLIES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TAM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONSENSUS TRACK GRADUALLY TAKES TAM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 19.7S 172.9W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 24.4S 172.2W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 28.7S 172.7W MOV S AT 22 KT WITH 45 KT END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** PART 02 CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 33.7S 171.0W MOV SE AT 33 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130200 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS21 PGTW 122000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/072021ZJAN2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 175.9W TO 21.0S 169.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 121730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 175.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED IN THE 120831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERIFY SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A GRADIENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132000Z.//