** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 121200 *** Gale Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1253 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.5S 175.8W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving SOUTHEAST at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 18.5S 173.1W at 130000 UTC and near 21.7S 171.5W at 131200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTPS01 NFFN 121200 *** Gale Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1253 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.5S 175.8W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving SOUTHEAST at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 18.5S 173.1W at 130000 UTC and near 21.7S 171.5W at 131200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTPS01 NFFN 121200 *** Gale Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1253 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.5S 175.8W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving SOUTHEAST at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 18.5S 173.1W at 130000 UTC and near 21.7S 171.5W at 131200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTPS01 NFFN 121200 *** Gale Warning 007 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1253 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.5S 175.8W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving SOUTHEAST at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 18.5S 173.1W at 130000 UTC and near 21.7S 171.5W at 131200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 005. ** WTFJ11 NFFN 121200 *** CREX Cyclone Message CREX++ VERSION: T000101 DATA Category - Synoptic Feature: A007 Storm Analysis Sequence D16026++ Identification of Originating Centre (Nadi = 071): 071 Storm Identifier:05F WMO Storm Name (8 character word)://// Year:2006 Month:01 Day (UTC):12 Hour (UTC):12 Minute (UTC):00 POSITION Latitude (100 x decimal degrees) (negative for South): -02070 Longitude (100 x decimal degrees) (negative for West):-16970 Manual Method for estimating reports related to synoptic features: 00 TC intensity (1=Depression 2=Gale 3=Storm 4=Hurricane):01 Radius of 1000hPa isobar at MSL in km:0200 Movement in degrees:130 Speed of Movement (in m/s x 100):00772 ENVIRONMENTAL DATA Storm Depth (1=Shallow 2=Medium 3=Deep):1 Storm centre: 01 Central pressure (hPa x 10):09960 Outer Limit edge of feature: 02 Pressure of outermost closed isobar (hPa x 10):09980 Radius of outermost isobar (km):0111 Location of maximum winds: 03 Time Averaged: 02 10-Minute Average Data: 10 Maximum wind speed (m/s x 10):0129 Radius of Maximum winds (km):0444 Winds in Sector 1 (northeast sector - 360 to 090): 36000 09000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 2 (southeast sector - 090 to 180): 09000 18000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 3 (southwest sector - 180 to 270): 18000 27000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 4 (northwest sector - 270 to 360): 27000 36000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10):////++ End Code 7777 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has formed a cold overcast overlying the LLCC in the past 6 hours, while the primary band to the east continues to mature and feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.5. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear over the cyclone is currently negligible. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours as it is steered southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 18.5S 173.1W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.7S 171.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 169.1W mov SE at 30 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 33.6S 166.5W mov SE at 35 kt with 45 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [988hPa] was located near 15.5 South 175.8 West at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has formed a cold overcast overlying the LLCC in the past 6 hours, while the primary band to the east continues to mature and feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=3.5. FT based on MET yields T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 20 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear over the cyclone is currently negligible. Conditions are favourable for further intensification of Tam in the next 12 to 24 hours as it is steered southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 18.5S 173.1W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.7S 171.2W mov SE at 20 kt with 45 kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 27.4S 169.1W mov SE at 30 kt with 45 kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 33.6S 166.5W mov SE at 35 kt with 45 kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1411 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [988HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5 SOUTH 175.8 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED A COLD OVERCAST OVERLYING THE LLCC IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, WHILE THE PRIMARY BAND TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MATURE AND FEED INTO SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A .55 WRAP GIVES A DT=2.5, MET=3.0 AND PAT= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5. FT BASED ON MET YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 29C. CIMSS INDICATES 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. RESULTANT SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TAM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHWESTERLIES. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 18.5S 173.1W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.7S 171.2W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 27.4S 169.1W MOV SE AT 30 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 33.6S 166.5W MOV SE AT 35 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS12 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.7S 169.7W at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southsoutheast 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle. LLCC is well exposed and deep convection which was displaced to the southeast has been blown away strong northwesterlies. 05F lies under 50 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is increasing to 40-50 knots. Global models move the depression further south without further intensification. This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 05F. ** WTPS12 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.7S 169.7W at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving southsoutheast 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle. LLCC is well exposed and deep convection which was displaced to the southeast has been blown away strong northwesterlies. 05F lies under 50 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is increasing to 40-50 knots. Global models move the depression further south without further intensification. This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Depression 05F. ** WTPS12 NFFN 121200 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 169.7W AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES-10/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. LLCC IS WELL EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN BLOWN AWAY STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES. 05F LIES UNDER 50 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 250HPA AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS INCREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE DEPRESSION FURTHER SOUTH WITHOUT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F.