** WTIN20 DEMS 120715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-01-2005 2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND COMORIN AREA (.) THE RIDGE LINE OVER INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 11 DEG LONGITUDE AT 200 HPA OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS01 NFFN 120600 *** Gale Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0719 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 14.7S 177.3W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving EAST at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles elsewhere. Forecast position near 15.6S 174.7W at 121800 UTC and near 17.2S 172.7W at 130600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 003. ** WTPS01 NFFN 120600 *** Gale Warning 005 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0719 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 14.7S 177.3W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving EAST at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles elsewhere. Forecast position near 15.6S 174.7W at 121800 UTC and near 17.2S 172.7W at 130600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 003. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 177.3 WEST AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED CLOSE TO THE LLCC IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, WHILE PRIMARY BAND TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO FEED INTO SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A .55 WRAP GIVES A DT=2.5, MET=3.0 AND PAT=2.5. FT BASED ON MET YIELDS T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29C. CIMSS INDICATES 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. RESULTANT SHEAR AMOUNTS TO MINIMAL OVER THE CYCLONE. SHEAR TENDENCY IS ON A DECREASING TREND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAM ACCORDING TO CIMSS AND TAM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT STEERS GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS BY DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.3S 170.0W at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving westsouthwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle. LLCC lies exposed and deep convection is displaced about half a degree to the southeast. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 45 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is 30-40 knots. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further south with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 121430 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.3S 170.0W at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving westsouthwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle. LLCC lies exposed and deep convection is displaced about half a degree to the southeast. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 45 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is 30-40 knots. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further south with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 121430 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120600 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 170.0W AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES-10/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. LLCC LIES EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST AROUND 28 TO 29C. 05F LIES UNDER 45 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 250HPA AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS 30-40 KNOTS. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE DEPRESSION FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESSER CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121430 UTC.