** WTFJ11 NFFN 120000 *** CREX Cyclone Message CREX++ VERSION: T000101 DATA Category - Synoptic Feature: A007 Storm Analysis Sequence D16026++ Identification of Originating Centre (Nadi = 071): 071 Storm Identifier:05F WMO Storm Name (8 character word)://// Year:2006 Month:01 Day (UTC):12 Hour (UTC):00 Minute (UTC):00 POSITION Latitude (100 x decimal degrees) (negative for South): -01940 Longitude (100 x decimal degrees) (negative for West):-16910 Manual Method for estimating reports related to synoptic features: 00 TC intensity (1=Depression 2=Gale 3=Storm 4=Hurricane):01 Radius of 1000hPa isobar at MSL in km:0370 Movement in degrees:220 Speed of Movement (in m/s x 100):00515 ENVIRONMENTAL DATA Storm Depth (1=Shallow 2=Medium 3=Deep):1 Storm centre: 01 Central pressure (hPa x 10):09960 Outer Limit edge of feature: 02 Pressure of outermost closed isobar (hPa x 10):10020 Radius of outermost isobar (km):0500 Location of maximum winds: 03 Time Averaged: 02 10-Minute Average Data: 10 Maximum wind speed (m/s x 10):0154 Radius of Maximum winds (km):0166 Winds in Sector 1 (northeast sector - 360 to 090): 36000 09000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 2 (southeast sector - 090 to 180): 09000 18000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 3 (southwest sector - 180 to 270): 18000 27000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Winds in Sector 4 (northwest sector - 270 to 360): 27000 36000 Maximum wind speed threshold (25 m/s): 025 Radius of 25 m/s wind (km x 10)://// Maximum wind speed threshold (15 m/s): 015 Radius of 15 m/s wind (km x 10):////++ End Code 7777 ** WTPS11 NFFN 120000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0222 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 04F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 14.5S 178.8W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving east-southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. 04F remains sheared. LLCC located about 30-40nm to northwest of deep convection. Organisation steady past 12 hours. Primary bands struggle to wrap around llcc. Shear is increasing over depression. Dvorak analysis yields T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12hrs. Deep convection continually being eroded. SST around 29C. 04F is moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa. Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Consensus track moves the depression gradually southeast and later south with decreasing chances of further intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued around 120800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0222 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 04F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 14.5S 178.8W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving east-southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. 04F remains sheared. LLCC located about 30-40nm to northwest of deep convection. Organisation steady past 12 hours. Primary bands struggle to wrap around llcc. Shear is increasing over depression. Dvorak analysis yields T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12hrs. Deep convection continually being eroded. SST around 29C. 04F is moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa. Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Consensus track moves the depression gradually southeast and later south with decreasing chances of further intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued around 120800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0222 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 178.8W AT 120000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 04F REMAINS SHEARED. LLCC LOCATED ABOUT 30-40NM TO NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. ORGANISATION STEADY PAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS STRUGGLE TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER DEPRESSION. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12HRS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUALLY BEING ERODED. SST AROUND 29C. 04F IS MOVING INTO 30 TO 40-KNOT NORTHWEST WIND REGION AT 250HPA. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONSENSUS TRACK MOVES THE DEPRESSION GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTH WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0231 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 19.9S 169.1W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression now moving southwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 30 nautical miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours. LLCC exposed and sheared close to 2 degrees to west of deep convection. Shear is increasing to east and south. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at 250hpa. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further southwest with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 120830 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0231 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 19.9S 169.1W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression now moving southwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 30 nautical miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours. LLCC exposed and sheared close to 2 degrees to west of deep convection. Shear is increasing to east and south. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at 250hpa. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further southwest with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 120830 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0231 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 169.1W AT 120000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION NOW MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. LLCC EXPOSED AND SHEARED CLOSE TO 2 DEGREES TO WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. SHEAR IS INCREASING TO EAST AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 TO 29C. 05F LIES UNDER 30 TO 45-KT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 250HPA. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE DEPRESSION FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH LESSER CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120830 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120300 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0313 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version... Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 19.9S 169.1W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression now moving southwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 30 nautical miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours. LLCC exposed and sheared close to 2 degrees to west of deep convection. Shear is increasing to east and south. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at 250hpa. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further southwest with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 120830 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120300 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B2 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0313 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version... Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 19.9S 169.1W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression now moving southwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 30 nautical miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours. LLCC exposed and sheared close to 2 degrees to west of deep convection. Shear is increasing to east and south. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at 250hpa. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further southwest with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 120830 UTC. ** WTPS12 NFFN 120300 CCA *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0313 UTC 2006 UTC. CORRECTED VERSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 169.1W AT 120000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION NOW MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. LLCC EXPOSED AND SHEARED CLOSE TO 2 DEGREES TO WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. SHEAR IS INCREASING TO EAST AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 TO 29C. 05F LIES UNDER 30 TO 45-KT NORTHWEST WINDS AT 250HPA. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE DEPRESSION FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH LESSER CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120830 UTC.