** WTPS11 NFFN 111800     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.2S
179.9W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving
southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 25 to 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots
within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

System was sheared overnight. LLCC located northwest edge of
developing CDO. Organisation improved past 24 hours. However, deep
convection still remain disjointed. Shear over depression increasing
especially to south.  SST around 29C. 04F lies under divergent flow
but moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa.
Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to
gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Global models move the
depression southeast and later south with moderate intensification.
Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to good. 


The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued
around 120200 UTC.

 




** WTPS11 NFFN 111800 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Depression 04F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.2S

179.9W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery

with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving

southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre

estimated at about 25 to 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots

within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.



System was sheared overnight. LLCC located northwest edge of

developing CDO. Organisation improved past 24 hours. However, deep

convection still remain disjointed. Shear over depression increasing

especially to south.  SST around 29C. 04F lies under divergent flow

but moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa.

Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to

gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Global models move the

depression southeast and later south with moderate intensification.

Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24

hours is moderate to good. 





The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued

around 120200 UTC.



 




** WTPS11 NFFN 111800     ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S

179.9W AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS IMAGERY

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING

SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE

ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS

WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.


SYSTEM WAS SHEARED OVERNIGHT. LLCC LOCATED NORTHWEST EDGE OF

DEVELOPING CDO. ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DEEP

CONVECTION STILL REMAIN DISJOINTED. SHEAR OVER DEPRESSION INCREASING

ESPECIALLY TO SOUTH.  SST AROUND 29C. 04F LIES UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW

BUT MOVING INTO 30 TO 40-KNOT NORTHWEST WIND REGION AT 250HPA.

DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE

DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTH WITH MODERATE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS MODERATE TO GOOD. 



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 04F WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 120200 UTC.


 




** WTPS12 NFFN 111800     ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

JAN 11/2036 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [997HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S

168.5W AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS

IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION

MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE

CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS

WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60

MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.


05F REMAIS SHEARED. LLCC LOCATED TO WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POSSIBILITY OF LLCC MOVING UNDER DEEP

CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS INCREASING TO EAST AND SOUTH.  SST

AROUND 28 TO 29C. 05F LIES UNDER 30 TO 45-KT NORTHWEST WINDS AT

250HPA. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWARD BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO

THE SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW FAIR TO EAST BUT POOR ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS

ARE MOVING THE DEPRESSION MORE SOUTHWEST WITH MINIMAL

INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. 


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 120230 UTC.


 




** WTPS12 NFFN 111800     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1  issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2036 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [997hPa] centre was located near 18.4S
168.5W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS
imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression
moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots
within 90 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and 60
miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours.

05F remais sheared. LLCC located to west of deep convection. Latest
satellite imagery indicates possibility of llcc moving under deep
convection. However, shear is increasing to east and south.  SST
around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at
250hpa. Depression currently steered southward by mid-level ridge to
the southeast. Outflow fair to east but poor elsewhere. Global models
are moving the depression more southwest with minimal
intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. 

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued
around 120230 UTC.

 




** WTPS12 NFFN 111800 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1  issued from RSMC NADI

Jan 11/2036 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Depression 05F centre [997hPa] centre was located near 18.4S

168.5W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS

imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression

moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the

centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots

within 90 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and 60

miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours.



05F remais sheared. LLCC located to west of deep convection. Latest

satellite imagery indicates possibility of llcc moving under deep

convection. However, shear is increasing to east and south.  SST

around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at

250hpa. Depression currently steered southward by mid-level ridge to

the southeast. Outflow fair to east but poor elsewhere. Global models

are moving the depression more southwest with minimal

intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone

in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. 



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued

around 120230 UTC.