** WTIN20 DEMS 090620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA(.) THE RIDGE LINE OVER INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 8 DEG. LONGITUDE AT 200 HPA OVER INDIAN REGION. MSG OVER ????/ ** WTAU05 APRF 090710 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S117E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0707UTC 9 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0700UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 15 nautical miles of Latitude 19.7 south Longitude 116.9 east Recent movement: southwest at 9 knots. Maximum winds: 75 knots. Central pressure: 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained clockwise winds to 75 knots increasing to 80 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas increasing to phenomenal with a heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of centre: 45/60 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 100 nautical miles of centre: clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1900UTC 09 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 21.4 south 115.8 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. At 0700UTC 10 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 22.6 south 115.1 east [over land] Central pressure 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 09 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 090710 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S117E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0707UTC 9 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0700UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 15 nautical miles of Latitude 19.7 south Longitude 116.9 east Recent movement: southwest at 9 knots. Maximum winds: 75 knots. Central pressure: 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained clockwise winds to 75 knots increasing to 80 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas increasing to phenomenal with a heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of centre: 45/60 knot clockwise winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 100 nautical miles of centre: clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1900UTC 09 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 21.4 south 115.8 east Central pressure 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. At 0700UTC 10 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 22.6 south 115.1 east [over land] Central pressure 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 09 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.9S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.3S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.8S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 25.3S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 28.4S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 116.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//