** WTAU05 APRF 081244 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:16S119E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1232UTC 8 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude 17.2 south Longitude 119.2 east Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots. Maximum winds: 60 knots. Central pressure: 970 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained winds to 60 knots increasing to 70 knots by 08/1800UTC and 100 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas increasing to phenomenal with a heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 40 nautical miles by 09/0600UTC: 45/60 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to within 90 nautical miles of centre by 09/0600UTC winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0000UTC 09 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.7 south 117.9 east Central pressure 955 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 09 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 20.5 south 116.9 east Central pressure 930 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 08 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 081244 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:16S119E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1232UTC 8 JANUARY 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone CLARE located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude 17.2 south Longitude 119.2 east Recent movement: southwest at 11 knots. Maximum winds: 60 knots. Central pressure: 970 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 15 nautical miles of the centre: Sustained winds to 60 knots increasing to 70 knots by 08/1800UTC and 100 knots by 09/1200UTC, with very high seas increasing to phenomenal with a heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 40 nautical miles by 09/0600UTC: 45/60 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre extending to within 90 nautical miles of centre by 09/0600UTC winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0000UTC 09 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.7 south 117.9 east Central pressure 955 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 09 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 20.5 south 116.9 east Central pressure 930 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 08 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 081500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.3S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 19.8S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.5S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.4S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.9S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WESTWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS BUT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//