** WTIO30 FMEE 070626 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8S / 32.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.3S/32.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 28.8S/32.3E EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 31.5S/34.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 32.5S/37.3E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/09 18 UTC: 33.2S/40.7E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. THE LLCC CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE AND IS STILL OVER LAND, NORTH OF SWAZILAND. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT IS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER LAND, NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTH-AFRICA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KRUGER PARK). THESES STORMS MAY LOCALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWARDS OVERLAND, FEW NWP MODELS EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION= ** WTAU05 APRF 070702 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:14S124E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 7 JANUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC tropical low located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude 13.3 south Longitude 124.3 east Recent movement west southwest at 13 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 07 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.3 south 122.5 east Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 08 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 15.9 south 120.8 east Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 07 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 070702 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:14S124E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 7 JANUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC tropical low located within 25 nautical miles of Latitude 13.3 south Longitude 124.3 east Recent movement west southwest at 13 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 07 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.3 south 122.5 east Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 08 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 15.9 south 120.8 east Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 07 January 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIN20 DEMS 070703 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION AT 200 HPA(.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 070626 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8S / 32.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.3S/32.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 28.8S/32.3E EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 31.5S/34.0E EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 32.5S/37.3E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/09 18 UTC: 33.2S/40.7E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. THE LLCC CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE AND IS STILL OVER LAND, NORTH OF SWAZILAND. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT IS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONG STORMY ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER LAND, NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTH-AFRICA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KRUGER PARK). THESES STORMS MAY LOCALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWARDS OVERLAND, FEW NWP MODELS EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION