** WTIO30 FMEE 061811 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 32.8E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 26.1S/32.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.2S/32.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 28.8S/32.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 30.8S/34.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 32.2S/36.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/09 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS RELOCATED OVER LAND, BUT VERY CLOSE THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS ALWAYS OVER LAND, COMING BACK OVER SEAS ONLY UP TO 24 HOURS SOUTH TO 28S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS , AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26AOC, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND OVER EAST OF ZIMBABWE, THE ALL SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE THEN OVER SWAZILAND, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.= ** WTNT45 KNHC 062031 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006 SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ENDED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005... FINALLY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 062031 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z FRI JAN 06 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 50.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 50.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 50.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 062032 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON JAN 9 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 54.8W 55 X 1 X 56 30.2N 57.0W X 17 13 X 30 27.8N 56.8W X 40 X X 40 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 062037 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 ...ZETA AND THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FINALLY COME TO AN END... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 50.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 062037 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 ...ZETA AND THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FINALLY COME TO AN END... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ZETA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 50.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 062109 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 6 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA Y LA TEMPORADA DE HURACANES DEL ATLANTICO DEL 2005 QUE ROMPIO LA MARCA ESTABLECIDA FINALMENTE HA TERMINADO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 50.3 OESTE O COMO A 900 MILLAS...1450 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ZETA ESTA PERDIENDO RAPIDAMENTE SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES...Y SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.4 NORTE... 50.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1009 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$