** WTIO30 FMEE 061228 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4S / 33.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/07 00 UTC: 26.1S/33.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/07 12 UTC: 27.2S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/08 00 UTC: 28.6S/32.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 12 UTC: 30.6S/33.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/09 00 UTC: 32.6S/35.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/01/09 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE AND SEEMS TO BE BACK OVER SEA BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO , BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26AOC, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SO UTHERN PART. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARDS TRACK, HEAVY RAINFALLS (LOCALLY MORE THAN 100MM/24H) ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND NEXT NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THIS RAINFALLS MOVE TOWARDS SWAZILAND DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. ECMWF AND ARPEGE TROPIQUES NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT UKMO NWP MODEL FORECAST AN ALTERNATIVE WESTWARDS TRACK, FILL THE LOW AND DISSIPATE IT OVERLAND.= ** WTNT45 KNHC 061408 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006 ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME 30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 061409 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON JAN 9 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.5N 54.4W 55 X X X 55 29.0N 58.0W X 10 22 X 32 26.4N 56.7W 1 38 X X 39 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 061413 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 ...ZETA WEAKENING AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST OR ABOUT 915 MILES...1475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 49.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 061413 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 ...ZETA WEAKENING AND BECOMING DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST OR ABOUT 915 MILES...1475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 49.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 061421 RRA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 6 DE ENERO DE 2006 ...ZETA DEBILITANDOSE Y DESORGANIZANDOSE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL MUY LEJOS DE TIERRA... A LAS 11 AM AST...15Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL ZETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.9 OESTE O COMO A 915 MILLAS...1475 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE-NOROESTE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ZETA SE DEBILITARA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE ZETA SE DISIPE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...23.0 NORTE... 49.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 061730 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.01.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 50.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.01.2006 23.0N 50.0W WEAK 00UTC 07.01.2006 22.9N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.01.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061730