** WTIN20 DEMS 060605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-01-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION AT 200 HPA(.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 060626 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2006/01/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 33.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/06 18 UTC: 25.6S/33.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/07 06 UTC: 26.6S/32.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/07 18 UTC: 27.9S/32.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/01/08 06 UTC: 29.6S/33.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/08 18 UTC: 32.0S/34.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/09 06 UTC: 34.4S/37.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE NORTHERN ALONG MOZAMBICAL COASTLINES BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND MAPUTO , BUT IT SHOULDEN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS THE SST SOUTH TO 26S ARE LOWER THAN 26AOC, AND THERE IS NO LOWLEVEL INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 72H. ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS, MAINLY LOCATED OVER SEA BUT ALSO OVER LAND EXTENDING UP ON THE NORTHWESTERN OF INHAMBANE, GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS, WITH STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED TRACK, THIS HEAVY RAINFALLS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MAPUTO AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTNT75 KNHC 060830 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON JAN 9 2006 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.6N 52.8W 58 X 1 X 59 28.5N 57.0W X 7 27 1 35 26.0N 55.5W X 42 X X 42 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 060831 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JAN 06 2006 ...ZETA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...FORECAST TO WEAKEN... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST OR ABOUT 960 MILES...1540 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ZETA MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...23.3 N... 49.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 060831 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 0900Z FRI JAN 06 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 49.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 49.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 060832 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS. THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT... NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR. GIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.3N 49.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$